In the wake of President Biden's surprising decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has quickly closed the gap on Donald Trump, igniting fresh suspense in what is shaping up to be an unpredictable battle for the White House.

Since Biden's announcement last Sunday, seven national polls have been conducted, showing that the Democratic Party has not only caught up but halved the previous deficit. Notable polls, including one from The Wall Street Journal on Friday, indicate that Harris is now neck and neck with Trump.

A New York Times/Siena poll released Thursday also mirrors this trend, showing Harris trailing Trump by only 6 to 7 percentage points, a significant tightening that depends on whether third-party candidates are included in the polling.

Harris's surge seems driven by a renewed enthusiasm within the Democratic base, particularly among those previously discontent with Biden's candidacy. A month ago, Biden garnered 59% of the registered Black voters according to a New York Times poll, whereas Harris has now pulled 69% of that crucial demographic. She has also increased her share among Hispanic voters from 45% to 57% and among voters under 30 from 46% to 56%.

This newfound Democratic enthusiasm is reflected in The Wall Street Journal's own polling data: just last month, only 37% of voters were positively reactive to Biden's campaign for reelection, but now, 81% of Harris's supporters express enthusiasm for her presidential bid.

Meanwhile, Trump, who was officially nominated by the Republican Party last week, has also seen fluctuations in his polling figures. Since an assassination attempt on July 13, his support slightly increased, but Biden's withdrawal and Harris's ascendancy have overshadowed what might have been a post-convention bounce.

Trump's campaign has attempted to downplay this shift, attributing Harris's surge to a "honeymoon period" following her entry into the race. "Clearly, we are in uncharted territory, with no modern historical parallel," Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio stated in a confidential memo that quickly circulated as a press release. "No doubt, Harris will see a nomination bump as we approach the Democratic National Convention, but we expect the race to stabilize once again in the coming days."

As new polls slowly replace older data, aggregate sites like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight may show delayed reactions to these rapid developments. Unweighted polls conducted since Biden's departure show Harris trailing Trump by a mere 1.6 percentage points. Excluding surveys from Rasmussen Reports — consistently the most Trump-favorable in the RealClearPolitics lineup — Trump's lead has nearly halved.

Similar trends are emerging in battleground states. Recent polls by Emerson College in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Harris outperforming Biden's figures from a week ago by 3 to 4 percentage points.

This race is proving to be as fluid as it is unprecedented, and with the Democratic National Convention on the horizon, all eyes will be on Harris to see if she can maintain her momentum against a backdrop of a deeply polarized America.