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Harris Battles Voter Registration Woes as GOP Gains Ground in Swing States

AInvestMonday, Oct 14, 2024 4:09 am ET
1min read

Democratic presidential candidate Harris may be leading her opponent Trump in the polls, but many point out that she is facing quite a tricky predicament.

Data from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, three key battleground states, show that the Democratic voter registration advantage is declining. Another battleground state, Arizona, reports that the Republican voter registration advantage is expanding, making it harder for Harris to win Arizona's electoral votes.

Experts warn that there is a general lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration and the Democratic Party. Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, University of Pennsylvania, pointed out that between 2020 and 2024, Democratic voters in Pennsylvania decreased by about 300,000, while Republican voters increased by about 70,000, and independent voters increased by 83,000 to 85,000.

He added that the decline in the number of Democratic registered voters in some parts of Pennsylvania is due to disappointment with the current federal government. People hold a very negative view of Biden, which is a dangerous signal.

David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University in Boston, pointed out that over the past four years, a general change has been that people no longer register as Democrats, and this difference is more pronounced compared to the surge in Republican registrations.

He also warned that when Trump won North Carolina in 2020, the Democratic voter registration was 390,000 more than that of the Republican, but now the Democratic registration is only 130,000 more than that of the Republican, which means Trump's chances of winning are greater.

Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who studies election data, also said that the advantage of older Democrats in Pennsylvania is diminishing, and many voters who were once classified as Reagan Democrats are changing their party affiliation to join the Republicans.

She added that the decline of union power and the rise of economic vitality elsewhere have disrupted the Democratic Party's connection with these old industrial areas.

However, the Democratic Party reassures that although they have seen problems with Democratic registration numbers, many new voters registered as independents are more likely to vote for Harris. The current situation is still not enough to indicate the voting prospects in Pennsylvania.

Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson believes that young voters who may support Harris are increasingly presenting themselves as nonpartisan. One main reason is that the reputations of both parties are not good. Many new voters have no loyalty to political parties, but the vast majority of them are not without party preferences.

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