Harmony/Tether USDt Market Overview

• Price fell from $0.01006 to $0.00992, with a 24-hour low near key support.
• Volatility expanded late in the session, with a sharp 15-minute drop.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum and bearish divergence.
• Volume surged in the final hour, confirming a potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating increased market uncertainty.

Harmony/Tether USDt (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.01001 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00992 as of 2025-09-06 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between $0.01006 and $0.00990, with total volume of approximately 41,182,438.4 ONE and a notional turnover of $4,156,508. The price declined under bearish momentum, with volume spiking sharply in the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a bearish continuation with a long lower shadow and a short upper wick in the final hour, indicating increased bearish pressure. A key support level was identified at $0.00992, where the price found a temporary floor after a sharp decline. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 2025-09-06 16:00 ET, confirming a short-term reversal. Resistance remains at $0.01006, where the price previously capped its gains.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the price below both, indicating bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages were in alignment, with the price below all three, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative, with a bearish crossover of the signal line during the final 30 minutes of the session, confirming a short-term bearish shift. RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions but did not show a strong rebound, suggesting sellers remained in control. A bearish divergence was observed between price and RSI in the final hour, hinting at further downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the last hour of the session, indicating increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band at $0.00992, suggesting a potential bounce or a test of the next support level if the bearish trend continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply in the final hour of the session, with the largest 15-minute turnover occurring at $0.00995. The surge in volume coincided with the sharp drop in price, providing confirmation of bearish momentum. A divergence between volume and price was not observed, as both moved in the same direction, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the last major swing, the price closed near the 78.6% retracement level at $0.00993. This suggests that further support may come into play around $0.00990 if the price breaks below $0.00992. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50% retracement level, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the price closes below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and a bearish crossover is confirmed by the MACD. Stops would be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and take-profit levels would align with key support levels below $0.00990. This approach would have been triggered multiple times during the last 24 hours, particularly around 2025-09-06 16:00 ET, when the bearish engulfing pattern was confirmed. The strategy relies on momentum and structure confirmation, making it suitable for short-term traders in a trending environment.