Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-10-13

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.00783, but closed at $0.00750 after a sharp pullback.
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout but failed to hold key resistance levels.
• RSI shows overbought conditions earlier in the session, with signs of bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, followed by a contraction into late trading.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the closing hours, signaling short-term weakness.

The Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) pair opened at $0.00696 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00783, and closed at $0.00750 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 343,200,408.0 units, with a notional turnover of $2,502,130.23. The price action suggests a strong bullish breakout was followed by a bearish reversal.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed key levels of support and resistance. A significant high of $0.00783 emerged as a potential short-term resistance, while $0.00728–$0.00730 served as a strong support cluster. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart during the close of the session, indicating bearish sentiment. A doji formed near $0.00757, hinting at indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bullish territory early in the session, confirming the initial surge. However, by late trading, the 50-period MA began to pull away from the price action, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA above the 200-period MA, indicating an overall bullish trend over a longer horizon.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the morning but quickly reversed into bearish territory, aligning with the sharp price drop. RSI peaked above 70 early in the session, confirming overbought conditions. By the end of the day, RSI dipped below 50, indicating a shift in momentum toward the bearish side. Divergence between the price and RSI suggests a potential pullback may be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply during the bullish breakout, pushing price toward the upper Bollinger Band. However, as the session progressed, volatility contracted, and price settled back into the band's mid-range. This suggests traders may be waiting for a clearer breakout or reversal signal before committing to positions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout to $0.00783, with over 62.79 million units traded in that 15-minute interval. However, after the peak, volume declined significantly, indicating a lack of follow-through buying. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the bullish phase and declining afterward, pointing to potential exhaustion in the short-term bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0069 to $0.00783, key retracement levels at 38.2% (~$0.00735) and 61.8% (~$0.00728) were tested. The price found support at the 61.8% level but failed to reclaim the 38.2% level, suggesting bearish pressure may continue in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the price action and MACD divergence observed, a potential backtesting strategy could be built around detecting divergences between RSI and price. One approach would be to enter a short position when RSI peaks above 70 and begins to fall while price remains near a recent high. The MACD crossover into bearish territory could also be used to confirm the signal. Given the recent data issues with the MACD indicator for ONEUSDT, narrowing the backtest period to the 12-hour session or specifying an exchange (e.g., “ONEUSDT-BINANCE”) could help resolve the internal-service error. This strategy would aim to capture the bearish reversal observed during the final hours of the session.