Harmony/Tether Market Overview: ONEUSDT 24-Hour Price Breakdown

• Price declined from $0.01051 to $0.00962, forming bearish momentum with oversold RSI conditions
• Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility before a sharp drop below the lower band
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish continuation
• Key support levels identified at $0.00985, $0.00970, and $0.00955
• A strong rebound is possible from recent 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.00979

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.01045 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $0.00962 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.01051 and a low of $0.00952 during the 24-hour period. The pair posted significant bearish momentum, with total volume of 126,575,506.5 and notional turnover of $1,289,069. The move reflects increased bearish conviction and a sharp break of key support levels.

Structure and formations suggest a continuation of bearish sentiment, with price forming multiple bearish engulfing patterns during the late session. Notably, a key support level at $0.00985 was broken decisively, followed by a further drop to $0.00962. A doji formed at the $0.01003 level during the morning session, signaling indecision before the downward move. These patterns indicate a potential reversal from the $0.00970–$0.00985 range could be in play.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a clear bearish crossover, with the 20-period SMA falling below the 50-period SMA. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $0.01005, while the 200-period SMA is at $0.01023, confirming a medium-term downtrend. Price is currently well below both the 50 and 200-day averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The RSI has entered oversold territory at 23, suggesting a potential bounce is possible in the short term. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the histogram showing a widening negative divergence as bearish momentum intensifies. Price remains well below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating high volatility during the downward move. A contraction phase is evident in the early session before the sharp drop, a classic sign of an impending breakout or breakdown.

Volume analysis shows a sharp increase during the price drop to $0.00962, confirming bearish conviction. The notional turnover spiked to $1,289,069 during the 24-hour period, with no significant price-volume divergence observed. This suggests the bearish move is backed by strong selling pressure rather than a capitulation-based rally.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the $0.01051–$0.00952 swing show a 61.8% level at $0.00979, which currently appears to be a potential support. A rebound from this level would likely see buyers test the 50% retracement level at $0.00997 before facing resistance at $0.01003. A break below $0.00962 would expose the next Fibonacci level at $0.00955.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on breakout trades triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below a key support level and a divergence in RSI and MACD. This would have occurred around the $0.01003 doji and the subsequent move below $0.00985. A stop-loss could be placed just above the swing high at $0.01008, with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.00979. The strategy appears to align with the observed price action and may serve as a viable short-term bearish approach.