Harmony/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price declined from 0.00506 to 0.00489 amid bearish momentum and fading volume.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential for near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded as price tested key support levels below 0.005.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06, Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.00506, reached a high of 0.00507, a low of 0.00471, and closed at 0.00489. Total volume over the 24-hour window was ~32.3 million ONE, with turnover of ~$1.56 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a bearish structure, marked by a breakdown from the 0.00505–0.00507 resistance zone. A sequence of bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow in the 05:45–06:00 ET session hinted at weakening bullish conviction. A critical support level appeared to form around 0.00485–0.00487, where price consolidated for several hours and rebounded slightly.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have drifted lower, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a broader decline in momentum and potentially a shift into a bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and remained below the signal line, with a bearish divergence in the final hours of the session. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30, raising the probability of a short-term rebound, though bearish pressure remains strong.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as volatility increased, with price frequently testing the lower band. The narrowing of bands in the early morning hours suggested a consolidation phase, which was followed by a decisive break to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the key breakdown phase between 05:45–06:00 ET, confirming the move lower. Turnover also spiked during the same period, suggesting strong selling pressure. However, volume has since tapered off, which could indicate a temporary pause in the downward move or a lack of follow-through on the bearish breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 0.00506–0.00471 swing show price has found a potential bounce at 61.8% (0.00484–0.00486), aligning with the consolidation zone. Further support lies at the 78.6% level around 0.00474, which may be tested if the current downtrend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish Engulfing pattern observed in the early morning hours aligns with a historically reliable setup for shorting in a downtrend. However, the effectiveness of such a strategy is influenced by the high volatility and liquidity conditions in crypto markets. Backtesting must account for delayed pattern recognition, liquidity slippage, and regulatory uncertainty. While the pattern signaled a valid entry, the subsequent price action showed limited follow-through, suggesting that additional filters—such as volume confirmation or trend strength—may be necessary to improve the strategy’s performance in live trading.