Harmony/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• ONEUSDT surged from $0.01001 to $0.01068 in 8.5 hours, forming a bullish flag pattern.
• Strong 15-minute RSI spikes to 78 and volume peaks of $17.1M suggest aggressive buying.
• Price retested key support at $0.01038 twice, with bearish rejection below it overnight.
• Bollinger Bands widened by 35% during the rally, indicating rising volatility.
• Downturn after 03:15 ET saw 8.5% drop on $19.8M turnover, signaling profit-taking.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.01008 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of $0.01068 before retracing to close at $0.01002 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume was 207.1M ONE, with $23.6M in turnover, marking a 35% increase from the prior 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish flag pattern between 19:30 and 03:15 ET, with a measured move target near $0.0105–0.0106. A key resistance at $0.01068 was tested once and held, while support at $0.01038 was rejected twice, forming a bearish reversal candle on the second touch. A doji formed at 03:15 ET during the sharp decline, indicating indecision and a possible short-term bottoming process. The overnight range was narrow and consolidated around $0.0101–0.01015, suggesting reduced bearish momentum.

Moving Averages & Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA at $0.01045, confirming a short-term bullish bias. Daily 50SMA at $0.01023 and 200SMA at $0.01035 suggest a neutral bias overall. Price retested 61.8% Fibonacci support at $0.01038 and 38.2% at $0.01051, with the 50% level at $0.01047 acting as a pivot for potential consolidation.

MACD, RSI & Bollinger Bands

MACD (12,26,9) crossed above the zero line at 20:30 ET, with bullish divergence forming in the evening. RSI peaked at 78 around 20:45 ET, then dropped to oversold territory overnight before rebounding slightly. Bollinger Bands widened by 35% during the rally phase, indicating a period of high volatility. The 15-minute close on 2025-10-04 at $0.01002 is currently near the lower band, suggesting a temporary oversold condition.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 17.1M ONE (worth $1.78M) at 20:45 ET, the highest in the 24-hour period. Turnover peaked at $19.8M at 03:15 ET during the sharp sell-off, which coincided with a 6.5% drop in 15 minutes. Volume and turnover were negatively divergent between 03:30–05:45 ET, suggesting bears may be exhausting their short-term selling pressure. The overnight volume was low but consistent, suggesting order flow was balanced.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided strategy involves entering long positions when RSI drops below 30 and price closes above the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart. Given the overnight close at $0.01002 with RSI near 32 and 20SMA at $0.01004, this strategy would have triggered a long signal. A stop-loss at the 03:15 ET low of $0.01001 and a take-profit at the 20:45 ET high of $0.01044 would have captured a 436-basis-point move. This approach aligns with the observed consolidation and potential reversal pattern at the 03:15 ET doji.