Harmony/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-16

• Price edged higher in early 24 hours, forming a bullish bias with a close near the high.
• Volume spiked during key breakouts and consolidation phases, confirming directional strength.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions toward the end of the period, hinting at potential short-term pullbacks.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, reflecting increased volatility late in the session.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.01031 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01038 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.01045 and a low of 0.01022. The 24-hour volume totaled 30,551,205.1, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,156,365. The pair displayed a moderate bullish trend with a defined structure of key support and resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price of ONEUSDT formed a clear consolidation pattern between 0.01022 and 0.01045, with key support at 0.01031 and resistance at 0.01045. A bullish engulfing pattern was visible after the 0.01028 low, confirming a shift in sentiment. A small bearish doji appeared around the 0.01045 high, signaling indecision and potential for a pullback. The price action suggests a short-term bullish bias with a defined range, but a breakout above 0.01045 could signal a new trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) show the price is above both, with the 20SMA rising steeper than the 50SMA. This suggests a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period SMAs are aligned in a bullish configuration, indicating continued medium-term support for the upward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line mid-session, confirming a bullish momentum shift, with the histogram showing expanding positive divergence. The RSI reached overbought territory (70+) toward the close, indicating short-term overextension and possible profit-taking. A retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.01034 may be expected before a potential continuation of the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded toward the end of the session, confirming rising volatility. The price closed near the upper band, suggesting a test of resistance. A sustained move above 0.01045 could trigger further upward movement, while a retest of the lower band (0.01022–0.01028) could serve as a critical support level for confirmation of a bullish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased notably after the 0.01028 low, confirming the bullish breakout. Notional turnover spiked during the late-day push to the high, supporting the strength of the move. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting that the upward move has solid backing and is unlikely to reverse immediately.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (0.01037 and 0.01034) were tested multiple times during the session, acting as dynamic support and resistance. A close above 0.01045 on the next session would validate a bullish continuation and open the path to 0.01050. A breakdown of the 0.01034 level could trigger a pullback to 0.01028.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop loss placed below the 0.01028 support level. A take profit could be set at the 0.01045 resistance level or a breakout above it. The MACD and RSI could serve as filters to confirm entry and exit signals, with RSI overbought levels used to time exits or tighten stops. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the current bullish momentum while managing downside risk with clear stop levels.