Harmony Gold Plunges 13% Amid Earnings Optimism: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Harmony Gold (HMY) tumbles 12.9% to $12.78, on track for its worst close since March 26
• Intraday low hits $12.76, a 13.02% drop from today’s open
• Despite a record $16.00 price target and strong FY25 results, shares face aggressive profit-taking

Harmony Gold Mining’s stock is in freefall despite a robust earnings report and a record dividend, with technical indicators flashing bearish signals. The selloff has pushed the stock to its lowest intraday level since April and triggered a surge in put options activity. Traders are now dissecting whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper shift in sentiment.

Earnings Optimism Clashes With Profit-Taking Pressure
Harmony Gold’s 12.9% intraday plunge defies its strong FY25 results, which included a 20% revenue increase and a record dividend. The disconnect stems from aggressive profit-taking after the stock hit a 52-week high of $17.99 in April. With gold production down 5% due to operational challenges and copper expansion plans still maturing, investors are re-evaluating the stock’s near-term growth trajectory. The technical setup—RSI at 34.3 and a bearish MACD histogram—suggests oversold conditions are amplifying the sell-off.

Gold Sector Diverges as Newmont Gains
While Harmony Gold tumbles, sector leader Newmont (NEM) rises 1.06%, highlighting divergent investor sentiment. Newmont’s stable production and lower operational risks contrast with Harmony’s copper-driven growth strategy. The gold sector’s mixed performance underscores a shift toward quality over speculative plays, with Harmony’s aggressive expansion into copper drawing scrutiny amid rising capital expenditures.

Bearish Playbook: Puts and ETFs for a Volatile Rebound
• 200-day average: 12.73 (near support)
• RSI: 34.3 (oversold)
• MACD: 0.177 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $14.08–$16.61 (wide range)

Key levels to watch include the 200-day support at $12.73 and the 30-day pivot at $13.46. The stock’s short-term bearish bias aligns with high put volume, particularly in the September 13 put (HMY20250919P13).

Top Options Picks:
• HMY20250919P13 (Put):
- Strike: $13
- Expiry: 2025-09-19
- IV: 47.85% (high)
- Delta: -0.5167 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00328 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.2587 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 36,268 (liquid)
- Payoff: At a 5% downside (target $12.14), intrinsic value = $0.86
- This put offers high leverage (18.31%) and gamma to capitalize on volatility.

• HMY20251017P13 (Put):
- Strike: $13
- Expiry: 2025-10-17
- IV: 47.21% (high)
- Delta: -0.4866 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0043 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.1760 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 11,643 (liquid)
- Payoff: At $12.14, intrinsic value = $0.86
- This longer-dated put balances time decay with gamma for a controlled bearish bet.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize the September 13 put for immediate volatility capture. Conservative traders may use the October 13 put to hedge against a prolonged selloff.

Backtest Harmony Gold Mining Stock Performance

Rebound or Reckoning? Watch $12.73 and Newmont’s Lead
Harmony Gold’s selloff reflects a mix of profit-taking and skepticism over its copper expansion, but oversold technicals suggest a potential rebound. Traders should monitor the 200-day support at $12.73 and the sector leader Newmont (NEM, +1.06%) for directional clues. A break below $12.73 could trigger deeper selling, while a rebound above $13.46 may reignite bullish momentum. Act now: Position in the September 13 put to capitalize on near-term volatility, and track Newmont’s performance for sector-wide signals.