Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Surges 6.45% on Eva Copper Project Approval – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) surges 6.45% to $19.32, hitting an intraday high of $19.37
• Final Investment Decision (FID) approved for $1.55–$1.75 billion Eva Copper Project in Australia
• Project to produce 60,000 tonnes of copper and 19,000 ounces of gold annually over 15 years
• Technicals show bullish momentum with RSI at 63.14 and MACD crossing above signal line

Harmony Gold Mining’s stock is surging on the back of a transformative $1.75 billion investment in the Eva Copper Project, a high-margin, long-life asset in Queensland. The project’s approval signals a strategic pivot toward copper, aligning with tightening global supply and robust demand for critical metals. With intraday volume at 3.8 million shares and a 6.45% rally, the market is reacting to Harmony’s bold move to diversify its portfolio and capitalize on copper’s structural bull case.

Eva Copper Project Drives Strategic Rebalancing
Harmony Gold Mining’s 6.45% intraday surge is directly tied to the approval of its $1.55–$1.75 billion Eva Copper Project, a 100%-owned asset in Queensland, Australia. The project, expected to produce 60,000 tonnes of copper and 19,000 ounces of gold annually over 15 years, marks a strategic shift toward copper—a metal central to electrification and clean energy transitions. The FID announcement, coupled with Harmony’s strong balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA <1.0x) and inaugural credit ratings (BB/Stable from Fitch and S&P), has repositioned the company as a dual-commodity player. Copper’s supply deficit and Harmony’s low-cost, high-margin profile are amplifying investor optimism.

Gold Sector Volatility Amid Copper’s Structural Bull Case
While Harmony’s core operations remain in gold, the Eva Copper Project aligns it with the broader copper sector, which is outperforming gold amid tightening supply. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the sector leader, has surged 3.01% on higher copper prices and production recovery at Grasberg. Gold peers like Gold Fields (GFI) and IAMGOLD (IAG) are also up 5.99% and 4.78%, respectively, but copper’s structural demand from EVs and renewables is creating a divergent narrative. Harmony’s dual-commodity strategy positions it to benefit from both gold’s safe-haven appeal and copper’s growth-driven fundamentals.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day average: 15.08 (below current price) • RSI: 63.14 (neutral to bullish) • MACD: -0.032 (crossing above signal line) • Bollinger Bands: Price at 19.32 (above upper band at 18.66) • Gamma: 0.135–0.140 (high sensitivity to price moves)

Harmony’s technicals and options chain suggest a continuation of the bullish trend. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $15.08 and the upper Bollinger Band at $18.66. The RSI at 63.14 and MACD crossover indicate momentum is intact. For options, two contracts stand out:

1. HMY20251219C19 (Call, $19 strike, 12/19 expiry):
• IV: 59.34% (moderate volatility) • Leverage Ratio: 14.31% • Delta: 0.579 • Theta: -0.0355 • Gamma: 0.1329 • Turnover: 3,027
• Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $20.29): $1.29 per contract. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the rally.

2. HMY20251219C20 (Call, $20 strike, 12/19 expiry):
• IV: 56.81% • Leverage Ratio: 22.74% • Delta: 0.440 • Theta: -0.0322 • Gamma: 0.1400 • Turnover: 43,779
• Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $20.29): $0.29 per contract. Despite a lower delta, the high gamma and turnover make this a liquid, high-liquidity play for aggressive bulls.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider HMY20251219C19 into a breakout above $19.50, while HMY20251219C20 offers a safer, high-liquidity entry if the $19.32 level holds.

Backtest Harmony Gold Mining Stock Performance
The back-test is ready. Please review the interactive report below for full performance statistics, conditions and methodology.Key implementation notes:1. Trigger definition: “close-to-close return ≥ 6 %” was inferred from your “6 % intraday surge” request; close-to-close change is the most common practical proxy when intraday high/low data are unavailable.2. Data source: Daily percentage changes for HMY from 2022-01-01 through today (2025-11-26).3. Position management: No separate risk-control rules were specified, so each position was closed on the very next daily close (standard event-driven test).4. Ticker format: Harmony Gold Mining is referenced internally as “HMY” (suffix removed) to satisfy module schema requirements.Feel free to explore the interactive panel for detailed equity curves, trade logs and performance metrics. Let me know if you’d like to adjust holding period, add stop-loss/take-profit rules, or analyse another trigger.

Harmony’s Copper Gambit: A New Era of Diversified Growth
Harmony Gold Mining’s Eva Copper Project is a game-changer, transforming the company into a dual-commodity player poised to benefit from both gold’s resilience and copper’s structural demand. With a 6.45% intraday surge and technicals aligned for continuation, the stock is primed for further gains if the $19.37 intraday high holds. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $15.08 as a critical support level and watch for execution risks in the project’s three-year construction phase. Meanwhile, the sector leader Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is up 3.01%, underscoring copper’s strength. Act now: Buy HMY20251219C19 for a leveraged play on the rally, or hold for a breakout above $19.50 to confirm the trend.