Harmony Gold Earnings Preview: Strong Gold Prices, Improved Production Expected

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) is set to report FY25 earnings on Aug. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is $2.85 per share, suggesting a 190.8% year-over-year rise. Higher gold prices and strong production in Q4 FY25 are expected to benefit the company despite headwinds from higher costs. The model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for HMY, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) is set to release its FY25 earnings on August 28, with analysts expecting a significant year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is $2.85 per share, suggesting a 190.8% year-over-year rise. This anticipated performance is driven by higher gold prices and robust production in the fourth quarter of FY25, despite headwinds from increased costs.

Harmony Gold's operational performance has been bolstered by a 27% year-over-year increase in the average gold price received, which reached R1 529 358/kg (US$2 620/oz) [1]. This improvement, coupled with a 3% increase in recovered underground grades to 6.27g/t, has positioned the company for strong earnings growth. Additionally, the company's strategy of focusing on high-margin, lower-risk assets and prioritizing quality ounces over volume growth has contributed to its financial resilience.

However, Harmony Gold's earnings growth is partially offset by higher production costs, primarily due to inflationary increases in labor, contractors, consumables, and electricity. The company also experienced a higher royalty expense and an increase in taxation costs, which further impacted its earnings [1].

Despite these challenges, Harmony Gold's operational discipline and strategic focus on value enhancement over volume growth have enabled it to maintain all-in sustaining costs (AISC) at R1 054 346/kg (US$1 806/oz), comfortably within its guided range of R1 020 000/kg to R1 100 000/kg [1]. The company's ability to manage costs effectively and maintain operational excellence has been a key factor in its ability to generate strong earnings.

Looking ahead, Harmony Gold is well-positioned to capitalize on the continued strength in gold prices and its strategic focus on copper as a key enhancement and catalyst for future earnings growth. The company's proven track record of delivery and clear plan to enhance portfolio quality suggest that it is well-equipped to navigate the challenges of the commodity markets and create enduring value for all stakeholders.

References:
[1] Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. Trading Statement. Retrieved from https://www.harmony.co.za/investors/news/company-announcements/2025/fy25-trading-statement-25aug2025