Harley-Davidson's Stock Price Plunge Raises Valuation Concerns

Harley-Davidson's share price has declined 10% over the past month and 18% in the past 3 months, prompting concerns about valuation. Despite a weak year-to-date share price return and multi-year total shareholder return decline, the stock now trades at a visible discount to analyst targets. The key question is whether this reflects mispricing or a sober assessment of future growth. Analysts have a consensus price target of $29.33, with some pegging fair value closer to the high twenties, implying a meaningful upside gap. However, the stock appears slightly overvalued according to our DCF model, suggesting less margin of safety than the narrative implies.