Truly Hard Seltzer’s Unruly Lemonade: Can Higher ABV and Lemonade Stand-Up Campaign Revive the Hard Seltzer Category?

The hard seltzer market is in a state of flux. While White Claw and Truly Hard Seltzer remain dominant, the category as a whole has seen declining sales in recent years, with traditional 5% ABV seltzers losing shelf space to higher-margin alternatives like ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails and hard teas. Enter Truly Hard Seltzer’s Unruly Lemonade, an 8% ABV variant launched alongside the “Lemonade Stand-Up” campaign—a bold move to reinvigorate the brand in a crowded market. The question is: Can this strategy turn the tide for Truly, or is it just another drop in a shrinking ocean?

The Market Dynamics: Hard Seltzers Are Stalled, but Innovation is the Key

The hard seltzer category fell 8.6% in total U.S. sales in 2024, according to industry reports. However, within that decline, there’s a clear split: traditional 5% ABV seltzers are losing ground, while higher-ABV and flavored variants (like Truly’s Unruly line) are gaining traction. The 8% ABV Unruly Lemonade taps into this trend, targeting consumers seeking a stronger, more cocktail-like experience.

The data suggests this could be a winning formula. Brands like Simply Spiked Bold (which also offers 8% ABV lemonades) have seen growth, while Truly’s existing Unruly line holds a 2% volume share of the hard seltzer category, with its variety packs becoming top dollar-share gainers. The Lemonade variant’s timing aligns with summer demand, when citrus flavors typically outsell other options.

The Lemonade Stand-Up Campaign: More Than Just a Marketing Stunt

The “Lemonade Stand-Up” initiative is a multifaceted effort to build brand equity and community engagement. It includes:
- Lemonade Day events (e.g., in Galveston and Lakewood), which teach kids financial literacy while tying the brand to family values.
- Advocacy for legal reforms to allow youth lemonade stands, with Country Time’s Legal-Ade campaign reimbursing fines and lobbying for policy changes.

This strategy is clever: it positions Truly as a socially conscious brand while associating the product with nostalgia and entrepreneurship. The campaigns also create shareable moments on social media, critical for engaging Gen Z and millennials.

Risks and Challenges: A Crowded Market and Slowing Category

While Truly’s move is strategic, the path ahead is fraught with obstacles.

1. Category Decline: The broader FMB category is shifting toward RTD cocktails (up 18.3% in 2024) and hard teas (e.g., Arizona’s 160.9% sales jump). These segments now attract younger drinkers seeking complexity over simplicity.
2. Intense Competition: Brands like Happy Dad, High Noon, and Cayman Jack are eroding Truly’s market share with innovative flavors and pricing.
3. Regulatory Uncertainty: While the Legal-Ade campaign aims to relax lemonade stand laws, regulatory hurdles could limit the campaign’s reach.

The Investment Case: Riding the Flavor Wave or Betting on a Declining Category?

For investors, the question is whether Truly’s Unruly Lemonade can carve out a niche in a slowing category.

• Bull Case: The 8% ABV product taps into premiumization trends, appealing to drinkers who want a stronger, cocktail-like experience without mixing. Truly’s existing distribution network (present in 90% of U.S. multi-outlet stores) ensures widespread availability. The Lemonade Stand-Up campaign could also boost brand loyalty, as seen with brands like Corona, which leveraged cultural moments to stay top-of-mind.
• Bear Case: The hard seltzer category’s decline isn’t just about flavor—it’s about consumer fatigue and shifting preferences. Even if Unruly Lemonade succeeds, it may not offset losses from traditional seltzers.

The numbers are telling. Boston Beer (SAM) reported $132 million in revenue growth from Truly’s variety packs in 2024, but its parent company’s stock has underperformed the market year-to-date. The FMB category’s 13.6% CAGR is driven by segments outside traditional seltzers, meaning Truly must prove it can dominate the “flavor-forward” subcategory.

Conclusion: A Gamble Worth Taking?

Truly’s Unruly Lemonade and Lemonade Stand-Up campaign are strategic bets to reignite growth in a fading category. The higher ABV aligns with consumer demand for bold flavors, and the campaign’s community focus builds emotional equity. However, investors must weigh these positives against the hard seltzer category’s structural decline.

If Truly can capture even 5% of the growing $4 billion RTD cocktail market—a segment projected to outpace seltzers—this move could pay off. But if the seltzer category’s decline accelerates, the risks outweigh the rewards.

The verdict? Truly’s innovation is a must-watch experiment, but investors should remain cautious until sales data proves the Unruly line can sustainably offset category headwinds.

In the end, the “Lemonade Stand-Up” isn’t just about drinks—it’s about standing out in a market where differentiation is the only path to survival.