Hanesbrands (HBI) Soars 22.8% on Acquisition Rumors: Can This Bullish Surge Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Hanesbrands (HBI) surges 22.79% to $5.93 amid rumors of a $5B Gildan Activewear acquisition
• Intraday range of $5.82–$6.75 highlights volatile trading session
• Technicals show RSI at 55.62, MACD divergence, and Bollinger Bands compression
• Market reacts to strategic merger speculation as HBI’s 52W low of $3.96 gains 50% in 24 hours

Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) is experiencing a seismic shift in investor sentiment as shares rocket 22.8% intraday on August 12, 2025. The surge follows unconfirmed reports of a potential $5 billion acquisition by Gildan Activewear, a deal that could redefine the innerwear landscape. With HBI’s stock trading near its 52-week high of $9.10, the market is betting on a transformative outcome for the beleaguered apparel maker.

Gildan Activewear Acquisition Talks Ignite HBI’s Volatility
The explosive 22.8% rally in Hanesbrands shares is directly tied to unconfirmed reports from the Financial Times that Gildan Activewear is nearing a $5 billion acquisition deal. This potential merger, if finalized, would represent a 100% premium to HBI’s market cap of $1.71 billion as of August 11. The deal’s strategic logic is clear: Gildan gains access to Hanesbrands’ iconic Hanes, Bonds, and Maidenform brands, while HBI shareholders receive a lifeline after a 40% decline in 2025. The stock’s intraday high of $6.75 reflects market optimism, though the 52W high of $9.10 remains a distant target.

Apparel Sector Volatility: NKE Gains 1.3% as HBI Surges
The broader apparel sector is mixed as HBI’s 22.8% surge contrasts with Nike’s (NKE) 1.3% gain. While HBI’s move is driven by merger speculation, the sector’s underperformance reflects ongoing challenges from U.S. tariffs and shifting consumer demand. Hanesbrands’ 15% rebound since its Q2 earnings beat highlights its unique catalyst, but the sector’s 200-day average of $4.8332 suggests long-term bearishness. Investors should monitor whether HBI’s rally sparks broader sector rotation.

Options Playbook: Leveraging HBI’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day MA: $6.226 (above) • RSI: 55.62 (neutral) • MACD: -0.015 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $3.957–$4.930 (compression) • 200D support/resistance: $4.554–$4.651

HBI’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout but long-term bearish trend. The 55.62 RSI indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram’s positive divergence hints at potential reversal. Gamma and theta metrics in the options chain reveal high-impact contracts. Two top options for aggressive traders are:

• HBI20250815C6 (Call, $6 strike, 8/15 expiry): IV 82.37%, leverage 29.93%, delta 0.508, theta -0.056, gamma 0.773, turnover $11,598
- High gamma (0.773) ensures rapid delta shifts with price movement
- IV at 82.37% reflects elevated volatility expectations
- 5% upside scenario payoff: $0.965 (max(0, 6.227 - 6))
- Ideal for short-term bullish bets with high liquidity

• HBI20250919C6 (Call, $6 strike, 9/19 expiry): IV 37.71%, leverage 19.95%, delta 0.531, theta -0.007, gamma 0.539, turnover $10,196
- Moderate IV (37.71%) balances risk/reward
- Gamma of 0.539 ensures sensitivity to price swings
- 5% upside scenario payoff: $0.965 (max(0, 6.227 - 6))
- Suitable for mid-term bullish exposure with lower time decay

Aggressive bulls should consider HBI20250815C6 into a break above $6.20. If the $6.20 level holds, HBI20250919C6 offers a safer, longer-dated play. Avoid deep out-of-the-money puts given the acquisition premium.

Backtest Hanesbrands Stock Performance
The backtest of HBI's performance after a 23% intraday surge reveals mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive surge, it failed to maintain this momentum over the short and medium term. The 3-day win rate was 45.97%, the 10-day win rate was 47.80%, and the 30-day win rate was 43.59%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. However, the returns declined over time, with a maximum return of only -0.24% observed even 30 days after the event.

HBI’s Acquisition Premium: A High-Stakes Bullish Bet
Hanesbrands’ 22.8% surge is a high-stakes gamble on a potential $5 billion acquisition by Gildan Activewear. While the stock’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout, the 52W high of $9.10 remains a distant target. Investors should monitor the $6.20 level as a critical support/resistance zone. The sector leader Nike (NKE) gained 1.3%, but HBI’s unique catalyst positions it for outsized moves. Aggressive bulls should prioritize HBI20250815C6 for a 5% upside scenario, while conservative players may wait for a pullback to $5.50 before initiating longs. Watch for a $6.20 close above the 200-day MA of $6.226 to confirm the bullish thesis.