Han Duck-soo’s Presidential Bid: A Conservative Gambit for South Korea’s Economic Stability

South Korea’s June 2025 presidential election has taken a decisive turn with the entry of Han Duck-soo, a seasoned conservative with a career spanning diplomacy, trade, and finance. Framed as a unifying figure in a deeply polarized landscape, Han’s platform—centered on constitutional reforms, economic pragmatism, and a focus on U.S.-South Korea trade tensions—has positioned him as a key contender to challenge the liberal frontrunner, Lee Jae-myung. For investors, Han’s potential influence on governance stability and trade policy could reshape the investment climate in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

The Constitutional Gambit: Shortening Terms, Redefining Power

Han’s most contentious proposal is to reduce the presidential term from five to three years, creating a system of shared power with the National Assembly. This reform, he argues, would curb executive overreach and reduce the “winner-takes-all” political culture that has fueled instability. While such a change would require legislative consensus, it could stabilize governance by aligning election cycles with a shorter timeline. However, the risk of frequent leadership changes might unsettle investors accustomed to five-year policy horizons.

The political calculus here is stark. Han’s conservative base, fractured since former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, remains skeptical of his ability to unify factions. The People Power Party (PPP), the main conservative bloc, currently polls at just 23%, far behind Lee’s 38%. If Han can consolidate support, his economic credibility could attract centrist voters. Yet his advanced age (75) and lack of elected office experience raise doubts about his long-term viability.

Economic Priorities: Trade, Stability, and Pragmatism

Han’s economic agenda hinges on his deep expertise: as trade minister, finance minister, and U.S. ambassador, he has navigated crises like the 2008 financial crash and the U.S.-China trade war. His focus on resolving Washington’s new tariff policies—which threaten South Korean automakers and tech firms—could directly impact sectors like semiconductors and automotive.

The data shows a narrowing surplus, with tensions over tariffs on semiconductors and steel escalating. Han’s promise to leverage his diplomatic ties to de-escalate these conflicts is a critical selling point. Investors in companies like Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) would benefit from smoother trade relations.

Han also emphasizes institutional reforms to stabilize growth. A reveals volatility tied to geopolitical and economic uncertainty. If Han’s policies reduce political risk, the KOSPI could rebound, especially in sectors like manufacturing and tech, which account for 40% of the index.

The Political Crossroads: Can Conservatives Unite?

Han’s greatest challenge is overcoming the PPP’s lingering stigma after Yoon’s tenure. His independent stance—neither fully aligned with the PPP nor the Democratic Party—could either broaden his appeal or confuse voters. The PPP’s weak polling suggests that without Han, conservatives risk irrelevance.

Meanwhile, Lee Jae-myung’s liberal platform, emphasizing welfare and income redistribution, has resonated with younger voters. However, his policies could deter foreign investors wary of higher corporate taxes. Han’s centrist approach, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and free trade, offers a contrasting narrative.

Conclusion: A Conservative Comeback or a Risky Gamble?

Han Duck-soo’s bid is a high-stakes attempt to reset South Korea’s political trajectory. If elected, his constitutional reforms could reduce governance volatility, potentially boosting investor confidence. The show a 15% decline since 2019, partly due to political instability. A stable, reform-oriented administration could reverse this trend.

Economically, Han’s focus on trade resolution aligns with sectors critical to South Korea’s GDP. A shows exports account for nearly 40% of GDP, underscoring the need for trade stability. His experience in navigating U.S. trade dynamics gives him an edge over less seasoned candidates.

Yet risks remain. At 75, Han’s three-year term would end at 78, raising questions about his successor’s continuity. Additionally, constitutional reforms require National Assembly approval—a hurdle in a divided parliament. For investors, Han’s candidacy signals a shift toward governance stability but hinges on his ability to unite conservatives and deliver on trade. In a market where political risk has penalized South Korean equities, his success could mark a turning point—not just for politics, but for portfolios betting on Asia’s economic stalwarts.