Hamster Kombat/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-04)

• Price consolidated between 0.000335 and 0.000347 in last 24 hours.
• Strong volume spikes seen during sell-offs, signaling bearish pressure.
• RSI near oversold levels indicates possible short-term bounce potential.
• Bollinger Bands narrow in late hours, hinting at volatility breakout.
• Price failed to hold key support levels twice, pointing to weak structure.

Market Snapshot

Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT) opened at 0.000341 (12:00 ET - 1), reached a high of 0.000347, fell to a low of 0.000329, and closed at 0.000344 (12:00 ET). Total 24-hour volume was 1,443,576,669. Total turnover amounted to $497,098. The pair exhibited moderate volatility and bearish pressure, especially between 05:00 and 07:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed repeated failures to hold key support at 0.000335–0.000337, with bears retaking control each time. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 05:45–06:00 ET session. Doji appeared near 0.000341 and 0.000346, signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-period SMA but below the 50-period SMA, suggesting short-term weakness. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at 0.000340, acting as a key psychological barrier. Price appears to be testing the 100-period SMA (0.000342) with potential to break down.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 05:45 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 for a time in the early morning hours, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. Momentum remains bearish, but a rebound could be imminent as RSI appears to stabilize near 32–34.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively compressed until late in the session, with price staying within 1 standard deviation for most of the day. Around 15:00–16:00 ET, the bands began to widen, indicating a possible breakout. Price closed near the lower band at 0.000344, suggesting a possible bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 05:45–06:00 and 06:30–06:45 ET sessions as price fell sharply toward 0.000335. Despite the sell-off, turnover did not rise proportionally, suggesting possible liquidity absorption by large players. A divergence emerged between falling price and flat-to-declining turnover, hinting at waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retraced 61.8% of the 0.000337–0.000346 move to 0.000341, where it stalled. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the 0.000346–0.000335 move lies at 0.000340, aligning with the 50-period SMA. Price may test the 61.8% level at 0.000343 in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent RSI activity and bearish structure, a backtest using RSI(14) < 30 as an entry signal could be valuable for HMSTRUSDT. Once the correct ticker is confirmed, the RSI(14) series can be calculated and used to generate buy signals. A 3-day holding period could test the pair’s short-term mean reversion potential in the context of its recent volatility and consolidation.