Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged to 0.000431 before retracing to 0.000426 on heavy volume
• Bullish momentum evident from morning breakouts and strong close above prior highs
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon with price oscillating between key levels
• Volume surged on the final 15-minute bar, confirming bearish pressure
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, hinting at potential pullback

Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT) opened at 0.000414 on 2025-10-25 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.000431, and closed at 0.000426 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26. Total 24-hour volume reached 619,788,965.0 units, with notional turnover reflecting strong price movement and late-day volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price carved out a bullish structure in the morning with a sharp rally to 0.000431, followed by a consolidation and pullback into the afternoon. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.000429, confirming downward pressure. Key support appears at 0.000422–0.000423, while resistance clusters between 0.000430–0.000431 remain intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the morning, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA began pulling price lower in the afternoon, hinting at potential short-term topping. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has been rising, indicating a longer-term uptrend, though the 200-period MA remains neutral.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the late afternoon, with a bearish crossover confirming the pullback. RSI climbed to overbought levels (~70) during the morning surge before dropping to ~55–60 in the afternoon. This suggests exhaustion at the top and possible continuation of the pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bands expanded sharply after 09:00 ET as the price broke above the upper band. Price later re-entered the band and settled near the middle toward the close. This suggests a period of high volatility followed by normalization, with potential for a test of the lower band in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the afternoon and final 15-minute bar (16:00 ET), with the latter reaching 4.55 million units traded. Notional turnover rose in tandem, confirming the bearish reversal at the top. However, volume declined in the final hour, hinting at fading momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 10:00–14:00 ET swing shows key retracement levels at 0.000427 (38.2%) and 0.000424 (61.8%). Price found temporary support near the 61.8% level before consolidating. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the longer-term move sits at ~0.000415–0.000416.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy might consider selling short on a breakdown of the 0.000422–0.000423 support zone with a stop above 0.000427 and a target of 0.000418–0.000419. This aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence. A long bias could be considered on a retest of the 0.000427–0.000429 zone with a stop below 0.000424, as price shows potential to re-range or extend the rally.