Hamilton Insurance (HG) Surges 9.75% on Earnings, Buybacks, and Analyst Optimism—What’s Next?

Summary
• Hamilton Insurance (HG) rockets 9.75% to $25.89, hitting its 52-week high of $26.435
• Company authorizes $150M share buyback, signaling confidence in undervaluation
• Q3 earnings report reveals $136.2M net income, outpacing expectations
• Analysts at Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings upgrade to 'Buy' as institutional investors pile in

Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) has ignited a frenzy in the insurance sector, surging nearly 10% in a single session amid a confluence of bullish catalysts. The stock’s intraday high of $26.435 aligns with its 52-week peak, driven by a robust Q3 earnings report, a $150M share repurchase authorization, and a wave of analyst upgrades. With turnover at 0.645% and a dynamic PE of 4.75, the move reflects a rare alignment of fundamentals and sentiment.

Earnings Beat, Share Buybacks, and Analyst Optimism Fuel Hamilton Insurance’s Surge
Hamilton Insurance’s 9.75% rally stems from three pivotal developments. First, its Q3 earnings report revealed a $136.2M net income, translating to $1.32 per share, with revenue hitting $667.7M—well above market expectations. Second, the company announced a $150M share buyback expansion, signaling management’s conviction in its undervalued stock. Third, a cascade of analyst upgrades, including a 'Buy' from Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings, has amplified investor confidence. Institutional activity, such as South Dakota’s $270K investment and Goldman Sachs’ $5.8M stake, further underscores the stock’s appeal. These factors collectively triggered a short-covering rally and speculative buying.

Hamilton Insurance Outpaces Insurance Sector as TRV Gains 0.14%
While the broader insurance sector remains mixed, Hamilton Insurance’s 9.75% surge dwarfs the 0.14% rise of sector leader The Travelers Companies (TRV). This divergence highlights HG’s unique catalysts—namely, its aggressive buyback and earnings outperformance—rather than a sector-wide trend. TRV’s muted performance suggests that HG’s rally is driven by company-specific optimism rather than macroeconomic tailwinds for the insurance industry.

Options and ETF Strategies for HG’s Volatile Move: Calls and Puts in Focus
• RSI: 40.28 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.15 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.037 (neutral), Histogram: -0.114 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $25.04, Middle $24.097, Lower $23.16 (price near upper band)
• 200D MA: $21.39 (well below current price)

Hamilton Insurance’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition with RSI at 40.28, but the stock remains above its 200-day moving average and Bollinger Bands. The key support level at $24.62 and resistance at $25.04 define a tight trading range. For options, two contracts stand out:

• HG20251121C25 (Call): Strike $25, Expiry 2025-11-21, IV 50.31%, Leverage 16.34%, Delta 0.643, Theta -0.067, Gamma 0.133, Turnover 13,918
- IV (50.31%) indicates moderate volatility; Leverage (16.34%) amplifies gains if the stock breaks $25.04; Delta (0.643) ensures sensitivity to price moves; Gamma (0.133) suggests accelerating delta as the stock rises.
- Payoff: At a 5% upside (target $27.18), the call’s payoff is $2.18 per contract, offering 170% return on premium.
- Why it works: High liquidity (13,918 turnover) and favorable Greeks make this ideal for a short-term bullish bet.

• HG20260116C25 (Call): Strike $25, Expiry 2026-01-16, IV 36.46%, Leverage 11.73%, Delta 0.628, Theta -0.019, Gamma 0.0899, Turnover 1,520
- IV (36.46%) is reasonable; Leverage (11.73%) balances risk/reward; Delta (0.628) ensures moderate sensitivity; Gamma (0.0899) supports gradual delta increases.
- Payoff: At $27.18, payoff is $2.18 per contract, with 185% return on premium.
- Why it works: Longer expiry (Jan 2026) and decent liquidity (1,520 turnover) suit investors expecting sustained momentum.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy HG20251121C25 for a 170% upside if the stock breaks $25.04. Conservative players may opt for HG20260116C25 to capture longer-term gains.

Backtest Hamilton Insurance Stock Performance
To evaluate HG.N’s performance following a “10 % intraday surge,” I need to be sure we’re using the definition you have in mind.Common ways to define a 10 % intraday surge are:1. Close-to-close move ≥ +10 % (today’s close versus yesterday’s close).2. High-to-previous-close move ≥ +10 % (today’s intraday high versus yesterday’s close).3. High-to-open move ≥ +10 % (today’s intraday high versus today’s open).Please let me know which definition you’d like to use. If it’s option 1 (close-to-close) we can proceed immediately; options 2 or 3 require intraday (high/low/open) data, which I can also retrieve.Once the criterion is set, I’ll:• pull the necessary price data for HG.N from 2022-01-01 to today, • isolate the dates that meet the 10 % surge rule, • run an event back-test to measure HG.N’s performance after those dates, and • present the results in an interactive chart.Let me know which surge definition you prefer (or if you have a different one), and we’ll get started.

Hamilton Insurance’s Momentum Unlikely to Slow—Act Now on Call Options
Hamilton Insurance’s 9.75% surge is underpinned by earnings strength, a $150M buyback, and analyst upgrades, making the rally highly sustainable. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and strong institutional backing suggest further upside. Investors should prioritize the HG20251121C25 call option to capitalize on a potential breakout above $25.04. Meanwhile, sector leader TRV’s 0.14% gain highlights HG’s outperformance, reinforcing the case for a focused, options-driven strategy. Act now: Buy the call option if the price holds above $24.85, the intraday low.