Hamilton Insurance (HG) Surges 10.8% on Earnings Beat and $150M Buyback: Is This the Start of a Bullish Breakout?

Summary
• Hamilton Insurance (HG) rockets 10.8% to $26.14, hitting 52-week high of $26.435
• Q3 earnings smash estimates with $1.32 EPS, driven by $136.2M net income
• $150M share repurchase authorization and leadership changes fuel investor optimism
• Intraday range of $24.85 to $26.435 highlights sharp reversal from morning lows

Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) delivered a jaw-dropping 10.8% surge on Wednesday, fueled by a blockbuster Q3 earnings report and a $150 million share buyback expansion. The stock’s intraday high of $26.435 nearly matched its 52-week peak, while technical indicators and options activity suggest momentum traders are positioning for a potential breakout. With a dynamic PE ratio of 4.79 and a 52-week range of $16.8 to $26.435, the rally reflects a perfect storm of earnings surprises, capital return commitments, and strategic leadership shifts.

Q3 Earnings Beat and Share Buyback Fuel Hamilton Insurance's Surge
Hamilton Insurance’s 10.8% rally was ignited by a Q3 earnings report that far exceeded expectations. The company reported $1.32 EPS on $667.7 million in revenue, surpassing the $0.75 consensus estimate. Favorable prior period development, higher net investment income, and reduced catastrophe losses drove the results. Compounding the positive news, Hamilton announced a $150 million increase in its share repurchase authorization, signaling strong balance sheet flexibility. Leadership changes, including Mike Mulray’s appointment as Chief Underwriting Officer at Hamilton Select, further reinforced confidence in the company’s strategic direction. These catalysts created a short-term buying frenzy, pushing the stock to its 52-week high.

Insurance Sector Volatility as Hamilton Outpaces Peers
The broader insurance sector saw mixed performance, with Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) rising 0.26% as a sector leader. However, Hamilton Insurance’s 10.8% surge dwarfed its peers, reflecting unique catalysts rather than sector-wide trends. While insurance stocks generally trade at a discount to the S&P 500, Hamilton’s rally was driven by company-specific factors—namely, its earnings beat and aggressive buyback—rather than macroeconomic shifts in reinsurance pricing or catastrophe modeling.

Options and ETF Plays for Hamilton’s Momentum Trade
• MACD: -0.151 (bearish short-term), Signal Line: -0.037, Histogram: -0.114
• RSI: 40.28 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $23.16–$25.04 (current price at upper band)
• 200D MA: $21.39 (well below current price), 30D MA: $24.26 (support level)

Hamilton’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition with RSI at 40.28, but the stock’s sharp move above the 200D MA and Bollinger upper band indicates strong momentum. The XLF ETF (Financial Select Sector SPDR) could serve as a leveraged proxy, though no direct ETF is provided. For options, two contracts stand out:

• HG20251121C25 (Call, $25 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 37.09% (moderate), Leverage: 16.58%, Delta: 0.74 (high), Theta: -0.0629 (aggressive time decay), Gamma: 0.1546 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $15,627 (liquid). This call offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a continuation of the rally. A 5% upside to $27.45 would yield a payoff of $2.45 per contract.

• HG20260116C25 (Call, $25 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 30.67% (reasonable), Leverage: 11.90%, Delta: 0.68, Theta: -0.0176 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0996 (solid sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1,520 (liquid). This longer-dated call balances time decay with directional exposure. A 5% move would generate $2.45 per contract.

Aggressive bulls should consider HG20251121C25 into a test of the 52-week high at $26.435. If the stock breaks above this level, the call’s high gamma could amplify returns. For a more conservative approach, HG20260116C25 offers time to retest key levels.

Backtest Hamilton Insurance Stock Performance
I attempted to retrieve daily price data for “HG .N”, but the data source could not recognise that ticker, so the request failed. Could you confirm the correct stock symbol you’d like me to use? • If Hamilton Insurance Group is listed on the NYSE, the symbol may simply be “HG”. • If it trades under a different code (or a different exchange suffix), please let me know the exact symbol.Once I have the correct ticker, I’ll pull the historical prices, identify every day with an > 11 % intraday jump, and run the event-based back-test from 2022-01-01 through today.

Hamilton Insurance at Inflection Point: Watch $26.435 and Options Gamma
Hamilton Insurance’s 10.8% surge reflects a confluence of earnings strength, capital return commitments, and strategic leadership. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and overbought RSI suggest a potential consolidation phase, but the options chain’s high gamma and leverage ratios indicate traders are pricing in further volatility. Investors should monitor the $26.435 level as a critical psychological barrier; a break above could trigger a gamma-driven acceleration. Meanwhile, the sector leader Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) rising 0.26% underscores the broader market’s risk-on sentiment. For now, HG20251121C25 offers the most aggressive play on a continuation, but caution is warranted if the stock fails to hold above $24.61 (30D support).