Hamas Leadership in Turmoil After Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh: Could Khaled Mashal Make a Comeback?

On the evening of August 3rd, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced that its leadership would undergo extensive internal consultations to reappoint new leaders for the organization.
On July 31st, Hamas confirmed that its political bureau leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran, Iran. This incident occurred after Haniyeh attended the inauguration of the Iranian President and was later fatally attacked in his residence, with Hamas pointing blame towards Israel.
In the wake of Haniyeh's assassination, speculation has arisen over who will succeed him. Khaled Mashal, a founding member of Hamas and former chairman of its political bureau, is considered a likely candidate. Mashal, born in 1956 in the West Bank village of Silwad, has a long history with Hamas, playing a central role since its inception and leading the political bureau from 1996 to 2017.
Mashal's near-death experience in 1997, when Israeli operatives attempted to poison him in Jordan, highlights the perilous nature of Hamas leadership. This assassination attempt led to a diplomatic crisis between Jordan and Israel, ultimately resolved with international intervention.
Besides Mashal, another potential successor is Khalil al-Hayya, a political bureau member and former deputy leader in Gaza. These possible new appointments come at a crucial juncture for Hamas, as it faces internal and external challenges.
Hamas's announcement comes after a series of recent blows. Besides Haniyeh, another notable figure, Mohammed Deif, the military head of Hamas, was claimed to have been killed by Israeli forces, although Hamas has not confirmed this.
The instability in Hamas leadership might impact Gaza's humanitarian situation. The international community, including the Biden administration, has been urging for a ceasefire and prisoner exchanges. However, recent deaths of key figures like Haniyeh complicate these negotiations.
Haniyeh's assassination in Iran also casts a shadow over regional relations. Iran investigations are ongoing, with no party yet claiming responsibility. Analysts suggest that this incident could plunge Gaza ceasefire efforts into further uncertainty. Additionally, the assassination could magnify tensions between the US and Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the newly inaugurated President have both condemned the assassination, framing it as a catalyst for stronger Iranian-Palestinian ties.
Given Haniyeh's significant role in Hamas's international diplomacy, his death is seen as a strategic setback for the organization, potentially exacerbating the already intense Israeli-Palestinian conflict.