Haleon Plunges 5.98% as Death Cross Signals Prolonged Bearish Trend

Candlestick Theory
Haleon (HLN) exhibits a pronounced bearish momentum, closing at £9.28 after three consecutive down days (-5.98%). The recent session formed a long red candle with a high of £9.44 and low of £9.26, indicating strong selling pressure. Key support is established at £9.26 (today’s low), while resistance sits near £9.81–9.83, aligning with prior consolidation zones. A breakdown below £9.26 could accelerate losses, whereas a close above £9.44 might signal short-term relief.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (~£10.05) decisively crossed below the 200-day MA (~£10.15), confirming a long-term bearish trend ("death cross"). Short-term MAs (50-day and 100-day) slope downward, reinforcing overhead resistance. The current price (£9.28) trades well below all key MAs, with the 50-day MA acting as dynamic resistance. This structure suggests entrenched downward momentum, requiring a sustained close above the 50-day MA to invalidate the bearish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram remains negative, with the signal line above the MACD line, underscoring bearish momentum. KDJ’s K-line (39) and D-line (45) show no oversold crossover yet, though both trend downward. While MACD suggests continued weakness, KDJ’s position near oversold territory may imply potential for a tactical rebound if K crosses above D. No bullish divergence is observed.
Bollinger Bands
Price breaches the lower Bollinger Band (£9.40 approximation), signaling oversold conditions. Band width expands, reflecting rising volatility. Historically, such breaks preceded short-term bounces (e.g., April 2025), but sustained trading below the lower band often precedes extended declines. A recovery above £9.40 could relieve immediate pressure.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent down days feature elevated volume (e.g., 14.5M shares vs. 7.2M 3 days prior), confirming bearish conviction. Volume expansion during sell-offs contrasts with lighter volume on minor rebounds, indicating distribution. The lack of volume-supported rallies questions sustainability of any recovery.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI reads 35.2, approaching oversold territory (<30). While this may hint at exhaustion, RSI has not yet breached 30, and prior oversold signals (e.g., April 2025 at RSI 28) preceded only fleeting rebounds. Caution is warranted: RSI alone is insufficient for reversal calls in strong trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the June 2025 high (£11.41) to January 2025 low (£9.01), critical levels emerge: 38.2% (£9.91) and 23.6% (£10.28). Current price action rejects the 38.2% retracement, reinforcing it as resistance. The 61.8% retracement (£9.26) aligns with today’s low—losses below this may target £9.01 (78.6% retrace).
Confluence and Divergence
Significant confluence exists at £9.26, serving as today’s low, psychological support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level—a breach here would intensify bearish momentum. Divergence appears between RSI (not yet oversold) and price action (testing multi-month lows), suggesting potential for a technical bounce but lacking confirmation from other indicators. MACD/volume alignment supports continued downside risk. Traders should monitor £9.26 for breakdown or reversal signals (e.g., hammer candle + volume surge).