Hal Finney Predicted $10 Million Bitcoin Price 17 Years Ago - Analysts Now Revisit the Forecast

In January 2009, cryptographer Hal Finney predicted Bitcoin could reach $10 million if it became the dominant global payment system. At the time, the cryptocurrency had no formal market price, and global wealth was estimated at $200–300 trillion. Finney's thought experiment assumed Bitcoin's 21 million coin supply would be valued accordingly.

Bitcoin has since surged more than 1,000,000% from its 2009 launch, reaching over $126,000 in October 2025. Analysts now suggest Finney's forecast may not be far-fetched, with some predicting BTC could hit seven figures. These projections are based on structural adoption, institutional demand, and Bitcoin's potential to rival gold as a reserve asset.

VanEck and other asset managers have released long-term capital market assumptions, projecting Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 in its base case. This scenario assumes Bitcoin settles 5–10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050, while central banks allocate 2.5% of their balance sheets to BTC as a reserve asset.

Why Is Bitcoin's Long-Term Valuation in Focus Now?

Bitcoin's price is currently around $90,000, down about 2% from its level a year ago. The cryptocurrency has stalled near its $95,000 ceiling, with investors waiting for clarity on U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve leadership changes, and potential regulatory developments. According to market analysis, VanEck's analysis shows that global money supply expansion (measured by M2) explains over 54% of Bitcoin's price variance since 2014. As central banks increase liquidity, the demand for Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply, could rise, pushing prices higher.

The firm also noted that Bitcoin's price volatility is partly driven by futures trading and leverage. Data indicates since October 2020, futures activity has explained 73% of BTC's price swings, indicating that leveraged bets can drive sharp movements regardless of fundamentals.

How Do Analysts View Bitcoin's Future Role in Global Finance?

In its most optimistic scenario, VanEck forecasts Bitcoin could hit $53.4 million per coin by 2050, assuming a 29% compound annual growth rate. This scenario depends on Bitcoin capturing 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP. The firm also estimates that Bitcoin could surpass gold as a primary global reserve asset, representing nearly 30% of world financial assets.

Lucid analysts previously predicted a $10 million Bitcoin price in 2019 but did not specify a timeline. Michael Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin advocate, has also backed the $10 million target, linking it to a $200 trillion global market cap for Bitcoin over two decades.

Despite these bullish forecasts, a bear case projection by VanEck suggests Bitcoin could only reach $130,000 by 2050 in a scenario where adoption remains limited. The base case, however, implies a 15% annual return, which would position BTC as a strategic portfolio asset for long-term investors.

What Implications Could Bitcoin's Growth Have for Markets?

If Bitcoin continues to transition from a speculative asset to an institutionally integrated monetary instrument, it could redefine global capital allocation. VanEck suggests that Bitcoin could function as a convex, low-correlation reserve asset with a 15% base-case annual growth rate. This would allow investors with higher risk tolerance to consider allocations up to 20% in digital assets.

The firm also highlighted the opportunity cost of zero exposure to Bitcoin. As developed markets face a sovereign debt super-cycle, the risk of missing out on a non-sovereign reserve asset may outweigh the volatility of holding Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the aviation MRO software market, which is not directly tied to crypto, is also growing. It is projected to expand from $7.48 billion in 2026 to $8.88 billion by 2030 at a 4.4% CAGR. This growth is driven by digitalization in aviation maintenance, AI-driven predictive diagnostics, and cloud-based fleet management.

What Are Market Participants Watching Next?

Traders are currently focused on Bitcoin's ability to break through the $95,000 level. A sustained move above this threshold could trigger systemic buying and open the path to six-figure prices. Some analysts believe $200,000 could be achievable by the end of 2026, assuming macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.

Investors are also monitoring the impact of interest rates and global liquidity cycles. Stronger-than-expected economic data has reduced expectations for additional rate cuts, limiting Bitcoin's short-term momentum. However, the cryptocurrency's performance over the next few months will depend on how central banks navigate inflation and monetary policy.

In the broader context, the aviation and digital asset sectors both reflect trends in automation, data-driven decision-making, and global connectivity. While the aviation MRO market is growing through cloud-based and AI tools, Bitcoin's potential to serve as a settlement currency underscores the importance of digital infrastructure in modern economies.