Guotai Junan: Major US tech stocks are anticipated to continue experiencing volatility and pressure.

According to CITIC Research's report, before the actual impact of DeepSeek on the demand for US computing power and the industry outlook becomes clear, US tech giants are expected to continue to fluctuate and bear pressure. In terms of style blocks, if inflation expectations fluctuate repeatedly, cyclical blocks will still be affected. In the medium term, if the growth prospects of the industry are clear, the growth blocks of US stocks are still expected to see a rebound and have stronger anti-inflation interference capabilities. In the short term, we focus on the release of the January non-farm employment and unemployment rate on Friday this week. If the data is lower than expected, the expectation of a cut in March will be heated up, thus partially easing the pressure on the recovery of the cyclical value blocks of high inflation and growth restraint.

For the global market, the range of tariff increases or expansion and the resulting slowdown in economic growth and the possibility of a further rise in inflation expectations and the fluctuation of the US dollar index, the domestic growth logic and safety margin of each country may determine the market's recovery momentum and space. Compared with each other, Hong Kong stocks and Japanese stocks in emerging markets are more advantageous. In the context of easing tariff expectations, global stock markets generally see a rebound recently, and the overall performance of developed markets is stronger than that of emerging markets. Emerging markets have shown different performances: Hong Kong stocks led the global assets in January, and Indian stocks and Japanese stocks have taken turns in the past two weeks. However, after the first phase of the tariff issue was settled, the US dollar index turned strong again. The depreciation of non-US currencies may put pressure on the recovery of emerging markets. In terms of commodities, the landing of tariffs leads to the avoidance of funds, and precious metals maintain the upward trend, with the prices of silver and gold continuing to lead. In terms of oil, the policy of increasing US oil supply has led to a decline in oil prices, but the sanctions on Russian oil trade are expected to provide upward support for oil prices.