Gunvor Scoops Up North Sea Crude as Europe Faces Kazakh Shortage

Gunvor Group, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, has increased its purchases of North Sea crude amid a shortage of supplies from Kazakhstan according to Bloomberg. The firm acquired five North Sea crude cargoes within two days as reported. The move highlights a tightening market as alternative supply routes face challenges according to market analysis.

Europe is facing a significant reduction in Kazakh crude exports, which have fallen nearly in half due to disruptions at a key Black Sea terminal as data shows. Further supply issues include Libya’s export constraints and maintenance at the Johan Castberg field in the North Sea according to reports. These developments have led to a sharp rise in premiums for North Sea crudes as Bloomberg notes.

Premiums for major North Sea crude grades have risen by almost $1 per barrel in just a week according to market data. Forties crude, among the cheapest in the region, is now trading at nearly $2 above the benchmark as reported. The tightening supply has also caused the North Sea forward curve to enter deep backwardation, signaling a strong demand-supply imbalance according to analysis.

Why the Move Happened

Gunvor’s purchase spree reflects a growing imbalance in the global crude market according to Bloomberg. While heavier, sour grades are abundant, light, low-sulfur crudes remain scarce in Europe as market data shows. This imbalance is driven by rising OPEC+ output and discounted Venezuelan crude flows into Asia according to reports.

The supply constraints at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal have compounded the issue as Bloomberg reports. The terminal, which plays a crucial role in transporting Kazakh crude, has seen reduced throughput due to drone attacks and maintenance according to analysis. These disruptions have made North Sea crude more attractive to buyers like Gunvor as market data indicates.

How Markets Responded

The increased demand for North Sea crude has driven up its premiums, with Forties crude reaching its highest level since August 2024 according to Bloomberg. The rally has also affected derivatives and forward contracts, with Gunvor featuring as a major buyer as reported. The tightening market has led to a significant shift in the North Sea forward curve into deep backwardation according to market analysis.

The price divergence between WTI and Brent has also widened according to Reuters. U.S. crude futures are trading at a $4.76 per barrel discount to Brent, their largest since April 2025 as data shows. This discount has widened due to the influx of Venezuelan crude into U.S. markets according to reports.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market participants are monitoring whether the current tightness in the North Sea crude market will persist according to Bloomberg. Improvements in weather conditions and normalization of loading at the CPC terminal could ease the supply crunch as analysis indicates. Analysts are also watching how European refineries adjust to the reduced Kazakh crude supply according to reports.

The imbalance in crude grades has pushed the Brent-Dubai exchange for swaps to its widest premium since June 2025 as Bloomberg notes. This suggests that European refineries are willing to pay a premium for light, low-sulfur crude as alternative sources remain scarce according to market data.

The outlook for the North Sea crude market will depend on how quickly supply disruptions are resolved according to analysis. If loading at the CPC terminal returns to normal and weather conditions improve, the current premium for North Sea crude could moderate as reports indicate. Analysts are also tracking the impact of geopolitical tensions and their potential to disrupt other supply routes according to market data.