S&P: Guinea outlook now positive on expected declining external imbalances, increasing govt. rev affirmed at 'B+/B'

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the Republic of Guinea’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at ’B+/B’ with a stable outlook, citing expected declines in external imbalances and sustained government revenue growth. The agency highlighted Guinea’s strong economic fundamentals, including a projected average real GDP growth of 9.5% from 2026 to 2028, driven by the Simandou iron ore project and expanded mining output according to S&P Global Ratings. General government debt remains relatively modest at 44% of GDP as of 2024, with S&P forecasting a reduction to 40% by 2028, supported by high nominal GDP growth and fiscal consolidation as reported by S&P Global.

While the rating reflects optimism about Guinea’s resource-driven growth and improving fiscal metrics, S&P noted persistent challenges, including low GDP per capita (below $2,000 in 2025), institutional vulnerabilities, and heavy reliance on mining exports for 90% of foreign currency earnings according to the agency's analysis. The stable outlook balances these risks against progress in implementing reforms and infrastructure projects, which have bolstered donor support.

A downgrade could occur if growth or export performance weakens significantly or foreign currency reserves decline due to prolonged drops in global mineral demand. Conversely, an upgrade remains contingent on faster-than-expected reductions in external imbalances and sustained fiscal discipline as S&P Global noted. Current account deficits are projected to narrow as exports rise, supported by increased production of bauxite, gold, and refined minerals according to the credit rating agency.

Source: S&P Global Ratings analysis