Gubra A/S: Insider Confidence and Biotech Milestones Signal Undervaluation

Copenhagen, July 7, 2025 — Gubra A/S (CPH:GUBRA), a Danish biotech firm with a dual focus on contract research and drug discovery, is emerging as a compelling investment opportunity. The company's recent strategic milestones, coupled with a pattern of insider transactions signaling confidence, suggest the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth potential.

Strategic Pipeline Progress: A Catalyst-Driven Narrative

Gubra's hybrid business model combines steady revenue from contract research organization (CRO) services with high-margin opportunities from its Discovery & Partnerships (D&P) division. The latter has become a key driver of excitement, particularly following recent partnerships:

1. The AbbVie Deal: In March 2025, Gubra inked a $350 million license agreement with AbbVie for GUBamy, an amylin analog targeting obesity. This marks a major validation of Gubra's peptide-based drug discovery platform, which has historically struggled to gain commercial traction.
2. Boehringer Ingelheim Collaboration: A fourth partnership with Boehringer in late 2023 aims to develop obesity treatments, leveraging Gubra's expertise in metabolic pathways.
3. Amylyx Collaboration: A 2024 deal with Amylyx to develop a long-acting GLP-1 receptor antagonist expands Gubra's reach into neurodegenerative disease therapies.

These partnerships, combined with 19% revenue growth in Q1 2023 for its CRO division, underscore a dual engine of growth: stable cash flows from services and high-risk/high-reward biotech breakthroughs. The market, however, has yet to fully reflect this progress.

Insider Transactions: A Vote of Confidence in Undervaluation

While the biotech sector often sees insider selling during volatility, Gubra's recent transactions tell a different story.

• No Sales in the Last Quarter: As of July 10, 2025, no insiders have sold shares in the past three months, according to regulatory filings. This contrasts with the only notable sale in the past year: Henrik Blou, the CEO, sold 10% of his stake (worth kr.31 million) in 2024 at kr.576 per share—a price below the current kr.670 level.
• Warrant Grants Signal Long-Term Commitment: On July 8, 2025, Blou received 11,186 warrants free of charge as part of an incentive program. This non-cash transaction aligns executive interests with shareholder returns, suggesting confidence in future stock performance.

The data above reveals a stock price that has underperformed expectations since the AbbVie deal announcement in March 2024. Despite partnerships and revenue growth, GUBRA has lagged behind peers, creating a potential buying opportunity.

Why the Disconnect Between Fundamentals and Valuation?

Market skepticism likely stems from two factors:
1. Biotech Execution Risk: Investors remain cautious about Gubra's ability to deliver on partnerships, given the lengthy drug development timeline.
2. CRO Revenue Volatility: While CRO services are stable, their growth rate has slowed compared to earlier years.

However, the absence of insider selling and the warrant grant to Blou directly counter these concerns. Insiders' retention of 64% of the company's equity, valued at kr.7.0 billion, further reinforces their belief in Gubra's undervalued status.

Investment Thesis: Buy the Dip, Play the Catalysts

Gubra presents a compelling risk/reward profile for investors willing to look past short-term volatility:
- Near-Term Catalyst: The AbbVie collaboration's first clinical data readouts (expected by early 2026) could trigger a revaluation.
- Structural Tailwinds: The CRO division's 19% revenue growth in 2023 offers a reliable cash flow base to fund biotech R&D.
- Insider Sentiment: Management's actions—warrant grants, no selling—signal that shares are undervalued at current levels.

Risk Factors: Delays in clinical trials or pricing disputes with partners could pressure the stock.

Conclusion: A Biotech Bargain with Insider Backing

Gubra A/S sits at an inflection point. Its strategic pipeline is maturing, insiders are doubling down on their stakes, and the stock trades at a discount to peers. For investors focused on catalyst-driven growth, GUBRA offers a chance to buy a biotech with both defensive and offensive strengths at a price that reflects pessimism, not reality.

Actionable Advice: Accumulate shares ahead of the AbbVie data readout, with a price target of kr.800–kr.900, assuming positive catalysts. Set a stop-loss at kr.550 to mitigate execution risk.

This analysis synthesizes insider behavior, strategic progress, and valuation to argue that Gubra's stock is primed for a rebound. The alignment of management incentives with shareholder value suggests this could be the right time to act.