Grupo Televisa (TV) Surges 8.9% on Strategic Fiber Push Amid Earnings Volatility

Summary
• Grupo Televisa’s stock (TV) rockets 8.9% intraday, hitting $2.86 after a 4.8% revenue decline and massive $196M CapEx surge.
• The MVNO service adds 94,000 mobile subscribers, offsetting Sky segment losses and stabilizing the Cable division.
• A $2.7B non-cash tax asset write-off and TelevisaUnivision income drop 51% Y/Y raise long-term profitability concerns.

Grupo Televisa’s volatile 8.9% rally on October 28, 2025, reflects a high-stakes bet on fiber expansion and mobile growth. The stock surged from $2.51 to $2.86, driven by aggressive capital spending and MVNO subscriber gains, despite a 4.8% revenue contraction and a $1.9B net loss. Investors are weighing the company’s defensive fiber strategy against structural risks in its satellite DTH business and declining associate income.

Fiber Expansion and MVNO Growth Drive Televisa's Volatile Rally
The 8.9% intraday surge in Grupo Televisa’s stock is fueled by its $196 million (53% Y/Y) capital expenditure surge for fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) expansion, which passed 27.7 thousand homes. This aggressive infrastructure push, despite compressing operational cash flow by 38.6%, signals a strategic pivot to defend market share against fiber competitors. Simultaneously, the MVNO service added 94,000 mobile subscribers, shifting the Cable segment’s RGU net adds to positive territory. These moves offset the Sky segment’s 18.2% revenue collapse and a 51% drop in TelevisaUnivision income, creating a short-term optimism around growth vectors. However, the $2.7 billion non-cash tax asset write-off and structural DTH obsolescence remain critical headwinds.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Televisa’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: 2.1672 (well below current price)
• RSI: 50.0 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.0558 (bearish) vs. signal line -0.0642
• Bollinger Bands: 2.29–2.63 (current price at 2.745, above upper band)
• 30D MA: 2.56 (bullish divergence)

Televisa’s short-term bullish trend is reinforced by its break above the 200-day average and overbought RSI. Key support at $2.38 and resistance at $2.86 define the near-term range. The TV20260116C2.5 call option (strike $2.5, expiring January 16, 2026) stands out with a 64.84% implied volatility, 5.99% leverage ratio, and 0.6768 delta, offering high gamma (0.420) and moderate theta decay (-0.0017). This contract’s high liquidity (turnover: 2,270) and leverage make it ideal for a bullish breakout. The TV20260417C2.5 (strike $2.5, April 17 expiry) complements with 58.36% IV, 5.01% leverage, and 0.6616 delta, providing a longer-term play on fiber-driven growth. A 5% upside to $2.882 would yield a $0.382 payoff per contract, amplifying returns. Aggressive bulls may consider TV20260116C2.5 into a bounce above $2.85.

Backtest Grupo Televisa Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study dashboard that summarises how Grupo Televisa (TV.N) performs after each ≥ 9 % intraday surge since 2022. Feel free to explore the win-rate curve, cumulative excess return, optimal holding-day table and more.Key take-aways (concise):• Only 1-day median return = -1.2 %; negative drift persists out to 30 days (-1.5 % vs -2.8 % benchmark). • Win-rate hovers 33 – 50 %; no statistically positive window detected. • Post-spike weakness suggests fading rather than chasing these moves.Let me know if you’d like deeper cuts (e.g., adding stop-loss rules, shorter holding windows, or comparing other tickers).

Televisa’s Fiber Bet: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play for Q4
Televisa’s 8.9% rally hinges on its ability to monetize fiber expansion and MVNO growth while mitigating DTH obsolescence and tax asset write-off risks. The stock’s break above $2.86 and 200-day average suggests short-term momentum, but structural challenges in the Sky segment and TelevisaUnivision’s performance could reignite volatility. Investors should monitor the Cable division’s FTTH ROI and the MVNO subscriber trajectory. The sector leader, Comcast (CMCSA), fell 0.36% today, highlighting divergent regional dynamics. For now, a breakout above $2.85 or a breakdown below $2.38 would signal the next move. Aggressive bulls may target TV20260116C2.5 for a high-gamma play, while bears watch for a $2.50 retest.