Televisa Skyrockets 9.6% Intraday—Is a Turnaround Brewing in the Media Giant?

Summary
• TelevisaUnivision reports 9.6% Q2 profit surge via aggressive cost-cutting
• TV trades at 9.6% intraday gain, breaking above 52W high of $2.71
• ViX subscriber count jumps to 10M, signaling streaming revival
• Bollinger Bands show price at 14% above midline as momentum builds

The Mexican media titan is defying bearish trends as its shares surge nearly 10% intraday following a profit turnaround led by cost discipline and ViX growth. With a 2025-07-22 close near $2.345, TV has pierced above its 200-day moving average of $2.02 while RSI hovers at 45.28, suggesting technical support. The $742M ad revenue drop masks operational restructuring gains under CEO Daniel Alegre, now showing early signs of market validation.

Cost-Cutting and Streaming Gains Ignite Investor Optimism
TelevisaUnivision's aggressive expense trimming—9% lower operating costs in Q2—coupled with a 10M ViX subscriber surge, has recalibrated investor sentiment. While overall revenue fell 4%, the 10M streaming milestone (up from 7M in Q1) demonstrates platform traction. CEO Daniel Alegre's operational integration of U.S. and Mexican assets is showing early results, with Q2 net income jumping to $96.2M versus $14.1M year-ago. This cost discipline, combined with improved sports viewership (U.S. ad revenue down just 2% vs. 5% overall), has created a compelling turnaround narrative.

Options Playbook: Leveraged Calls and Gamma-Driven Plays
• MACD: -0.0093 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: 0.0172, Histogram: -0.0266
• RSI: 45.28 (oversold), 200-day MA: $2.02 (below price), Bollinger Upper: $2.47 (near)
• 30D support: $2.24–$2.25, 200D support: $1.99–$2.01

Top options:
• TV20250815C2.5: Call, $2.5 strike, 2025-08-15 expiry, IV 68.32%, leverage 23.30%, delta 0.3796, gamma 0.9118, theta -0.003069, turnover 415
• TV20251017C2: Call, $2 strike, 2025-10-17 expiry, IV 57.85%, leverage 5.30%, delta 0.7447, gamma 0.4731, theta -0.001002, turnover 1,100

TV20250815C2.5 offers 23x leverage on a 5% upside scenario (strike $2.5 vs. current $2.345). With 0.9118 gamma, this contract gains value rapidly if TV breaks $2.5. TV20251017C2 provides 5.3x leverage with 0.7447 delta, ideal for directional bets if the stock sustains above $2.37. Both options show strong IV (57–68%) and gamma (0.47–0.91), suggesting significant price sensitivity. For a 5% upside to $2.46, TV20250815C2.5 would gain $0.0123 (49% of strike) while TV20251017C2 would gain $0.0303 (150% of strike). Aggressive bulls should consider TV20250815C2.5 into a $2.5 breakout, with TV20251017C2 as a longer-dated hedge.

Backtest Grupo Televisa Stock Performance
The backtest of TV performance after a 10% intraday surge shows mixed results. The 3-day win rate is 47.01%, the 10-day win rate is 41.02%, and the 30-day win rate is 47.01%. However, the returns over these periods are negative, with a 3-day return of -0.13%, a 10-day return of -0.67%, and a 30-day return of -1.25%. The maximum return during the backtest was 0.14%, which occurred on the same day as the surge, suggesting that the positive momentum was short-lived.

Break $2.5 to Validate Turnaround—Act Now on Gamma-Driven Plays
Televisa's 9.6% intraday surge needs to hold above $2.37 to confirm sustainability, with $2.5 as the next critical threshold. The 200-day MA at $2.02 remains a key support level, while RSI at 45.28 suggests oversold conditions. With ViX subscribers surging and cost discipline showing results, this could be a classic breakout setup. Watch for a sustained close above $2.5 to trigger institutional follow-through. For options players, TV20250815C2.5 and TV20251017C2 offer compelling leverage (23x–5x) if the stock continues its upward trajectory. Sector leader Warner Bros (WBD) is only up 0.43%, underscoring Televisa's outperformance. Now is the time to position for a potential multi-bagger if the turnaround narrative gains momentum.