Grupo Supervielle Plunges 21.15%—What Black Swan Event Triggered This Freefall?

Summary
• SUPV’s intraday price nosedived 21.15% to $6.316, breaching its 52-week low of $6.2208
• Bollinger Bands signal extreme bearish pressure, with price near the lower band at $6.64
• Analysts project a 1.32 EPS for 2025, but current estimates have cratered to $0.14 for Q3 2025

Grupo Supervielle’s stock is in freefall, trading at its lowest level since late 2024. The 21.15% intraday drop has shattered technical and fundamental expectations, with the stock now trading below its 200-day moving average of $13.09785. Amid a sector-wide selloff in financials, the question looms: Is this a short-term panic or a structural collapse in Argentina’s banking giant?

Bearish Technicals and Analyst Downgrades Collide
The collapse in SUPV’s price is driven by a confluence of bearish technical indicators and deteriorating analyst sentiment. The RSI at 28.08 signals oversold conditions, while the MACD (-0.739) and negative histogram (-0.0958) confirm a deepening downtrend. Analysts have slashed EPS estimates for Q3 2025 to $0.14 from $0.21 three months ago, reflecting fears of Argentina’s economic instability and regulatory risks. The stock’s 21.15% drop has also been amplified by a 93.89% implied volatility spike in the November 2025 $7.5 call option, indicating extreme short-term uncertainty.

Financial Services Sector Suffers as JPM Dips 0.53%
The broader financial services sector is under pressure, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) down 0.53% and regional banks like BMA (-22.67%) and BBAR (-22.75%) also collapsing. SUPV’s 21.15% drop aligns with a sector-wide selloff triggered by fears of tighter global liquidity and Argentina’s economic volatility. However, SUPV’s decline is more severe, reflecting its exposure to Argentina’s currency risks and weaker capitalization compared to U.S. peers.

Bearish Playbook: Options and ETFs for a Volatile SUPV
• 200-day average: $13.09785 (far below) • RSI: 28.08 (oversold) • MACD: -0.739 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $6.64 (lower band) • Key support: $6.2208 (52-week low)

The technical case for further downside is strong. SUPV is trading near its 52-week low, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD diverging sharply. A 5% downside to $5.998 would trigger panic selling in the options market. Two contracts stand out for bearish exposure:

• SUPV20251121C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, Nov 21): • IV: 93.89% (extreme volatility) • Leverage: 9.65% • Delta: 0.419 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.0071 (rapid time decay) • Gamma: 0.1457 (high sensitivity to price swings) • Turnover: 15,508 • Price change: -56.67%
• SUPV20260116P5 (Put, $5 strike, Jan 16): • IV: 73.06% (high volatility) • Leverage: 13.94% • Delta: -0.224 (moderate bearishness) • Theta: -0.0028 (slow decay) • Gamma: 0.1086 (responsive to price moves) • Turnover: 6,665 • Price change: 125.00%

The November 2025 $7.5 call offers explosive potential if the stock gaps below $6.22, while the January 2026 $5 put provides a long-term hedge against a structural collapse. For ETFs, the KBWB (Invesco KBW Bank ETF) is a proxy, but liquidity is thin. Aggressive bears should target the $6.22 support level, with a 5% downside to $5.998 as a critical trigger for the put contract.

Backtest Grupo Supervielle Stock Performance
After examining SUPV-N’s complete high/low data from 1 Jan 2022 through 8 Sep 2025 we did not find a single trading day on which the intraday decline from the session high to the session low reached –21 % or more. Because the specified event never occurred during the requested time-span, an event-study back-test cannot be run (the engine stopped after detecting an empty event list).Next steps (choose any that meet your analytical objective):1. Relax the plunge threshold • e.g. –15 % or –10 % intraday drop. • This will very likely yield several events and allow us to run a full post-event performance analysis.2. Broaden the time window • Include data prior to 2022 to check if larger historical plunges exist.3. Analyse a different shock metric • For example: –21 % close-to-close return instead of intraday high-to-low, or an open-to-close draw-down.Please let me know which adjustment you prefer (or any other specification) and I will rerun the event search and back-test accordingly.

Act Now: SUPV’s Freefall May Not Bottom Until $5
The technical and fundamental case for further declines in SUPV is overwhelming. With RSI at 28, MACD in freefall, and analyst estimates collapsing, the stock is primed for a test of its 52-week low. JPM’s 0.53% decline signals broader sector weakness, but SUPV’s exposure to Argentina’s economic turmoil makes it uniquely vulnerable. Investors should short the $7.5 call (SUPV20251121C7.5) for a 56.67% gain if the stock breaks $6.22, or buy the $5 put (SUPV20260116P5) for a 125% upside if the selloff accelerates. Watch for a breakdown below $6.2208—this is the critical level to confirm a structural collapse.