Grupo Supervielle Outlook: Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market SnapshotTakeaway: Grupo Supervielle (SUPV.N) is showing a strong sell-off in recent weeks, down 17.35%, with weak technical signals and mixed analyst views. Stance: Cautious.

News HighlightsRecent news impacting the banking sector includes a flurry of regulatory and economic developments. On May 31, the White House was reported to be easing rules for large banks, potentially affecting capital requirements and industry stability. Additionally, multiple banks, including RBB Bancorp and BankFirst Capital, announced stock repurchase programs, indicating a strategic move to strengthen market confidence despite broader economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, changes in US vaccine policy and the possibility of a revived uranium mining industry under President Trump also highlight the shifting policy landscape. These events may indirectly affect investor sentiment and economic conditions in which banks like Supervielle operate.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 4.00 Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 0.00 Rating Consistency: Dispersed — Citigroup rated "Strong Buy" while UBS rated "Underperform."

This inconsistency in analyst ratings suggests diverging views. However, the current price trend — a 17.35% drop — aligns with the pessimistic market expectation. The weighted rating score of 0.00 further emphasizes the lack of strong positive sentiment from a performance-based perspective.

Key Fundamental Factors: Revenue-MV: 0.39 (Internal diagnostic score: 3/10) Profit-MV: 6.97 (Internal diagnostic score: 7/10) Net income-Revenue: -8.96% (Internal diagnostic score: 0/10) Cash-MV: 8.03 (Internal diagnostic score: 7/10) EV/EBIT: 3.95 (Internal diagnostic score: 3/10) PCF: 0.82 (Internal diagnostic score: 3/10) PS: 0.21 (Internal diagnostic score: 3/10) Cash-UP: -7.61% (Internal diagnostic score: 2/10)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a positive trend in their flow, with the block inflow ratio at 51.20%. On the other hand, retail flows are mixed, with small investors showing a negative trend (negative inflow ratio of 49.93%). This divergence could signal uncertainty among retail traders, while institutional investors are more confident in the stock’s medium- to long-term potential.

Key Technical SignalsThe technical outlook is weak. The internal diagnostic score is just 1.85 (out of 10), indicating a bearish bias. Over the last five days, bearish patterns have dominated, with four bearish indicators and no bullish ones detected. Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score 2.39 — a clear bearish reversal pattern. WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 — while technically "oversold," this is not a strong buy signal in this context. Bullish Harami Cross: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 — misleading bullish pattern in a downward trend.

Recent Chart Patterns (by date): Nov 20: Bearish Engulfing and Bullish Harami Cross signals emerged — conflicting but ultimately bearish. Nov 19: Inverted Hammer appeared but was followed by a drop in prices. Nov 18: WR Oversold condition was confirmed — again, bearish in this context.

According to the model’s key insights, bearish signals are clearly dominant (4 bearish vs. 0 bullish), and the market is in a weak state. A pull-back or reversal is unlikely without a significant catalyst.

ConclusionInvestors should proceed with caution regarding Grupo Supervielle. The stock is under technical and analyst pressure, with bearish signals dominating and a lack of consensus among analysts. While certain fundamentals like Cash-MV and Profit-MV look strong, the current downward trend remains intact.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider avoiding or waiting for a clearer reversal signal before entering long positions. Monitor upcoming regulatory updates and earnings reports for potential catalysts.