GRTUSDT Market Overview – 2025-11-08

Summary
• GRTUSDT posted a 0.63% rise over the past 24 hours, breaking above key resistance levels.
• Volatility expanded after a prolonged contraction, with Bollinger Bands indicating a breakout.
• MACD turned bullish with a strong crossover, while RSI hovered near neutral levels.
• Volume surged in the late ET session, suggesting increased buying interest.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential near-term support at $0.0672 and resistance at $0.0690.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.06436 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.07686, touched a low of $0.06403, and closed at $0.06848 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading volume amounted to 166,949,085.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $11,426,940. The pair has shown renewed bullish momentum, breaking out of a recent trading range.

GRTUSDT has formed a distinct bullish structure over the 24-hour period. A key resistance level at $0.0680 was decisively broken following a 15-minute candle that closed at $0.06848. This breakout was supported by a Bullish Engulfing pattern formed on the candle from 2025-1108 111500 to 113000, which saw a volume spike. Additionally, a Doji formed near $0.06905 before a pullback, suggesting short-term indecision.

The 20-period EMA (15-min) rose above the 50-period EMA, forming a bullish crossover. The 50-period EMA on the daily chart has also begun to rise, indicating a potential shift in trend. The 200-period daily EMA, however, remains above current levels, signaling a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD turned bullish with a positive crossover between the 12-period and 26-period lines, supported by a strong positive histogram. RSI reached 52.4 at the close of the 24-hour period, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the divergence between the RSI and price during the late ET pullback suggests caution may be warranted. Bollinger Bands had been in a narrow contraction phase for much of the previous 48 hours, followed by a sharp expansion. The price closed near the upper band, suggesting a breakout is in progress.

Volume spiked sharply in the late ET session, particularly on the candles from 2025-1107 200000 to 210000, where buying pressure was evident. Notional turnover also increased in line with volume, confirming the strength of the breakout. Divergences between price and turnover were minimal, indicating strong conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracement levels applied to the recent 15-min swing (from $0.06403 to $0.07686) suggest key support at 38.2% ($0.0672) and 61.8% ($0.0690). The daily move from the low of $0.06403 to the high of $0.07686 has a 61.8% retracement at $0.0690 and a 78.6% at $0.0712, both of which appear to be potential near-term resistance levels.

The breakout pattern and strong volume suggest that GRTUSDT may continue its upward move in the near term. However, a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.0672 could test the strength of the move. Traders should remain cautious, as an overbought RSI or a breakdown of the 20-period EMA could signal a reversal. Investors are advised to monitor the 61.8% Fibonacci and upper Bollinger Band for potential resistance ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtested strategy of entering long positions in GRTUSDT upon the formation of a Bullish Engulfing pattern and holding until a reversal was largely effective during the initial bullish phase, as demonstrated by the strong performance from July to September 2022. However, the strategy faltered in October due to a lack of robust reversal signals, leading to a 20% drawdown. The recent move aligns with the pattern’s bullish signal, particularly the candle from 2025-1108 111500 to 113000. Nonetheless, the strategy could be improved by incorporating more sophisticated tools—such as RSI divergence or MACD signals—to identify potential exits earlier. Position sizing and risk management remain crucial to mitigate the risk of a retracement or reversal in the coming days.