The Growing Divergence in Analyst Price Targets for Delivery Hero (DHER): Is Now the Time to Buy?

The recent divergence in analyst price targets for Delivery Hero (DHER) underscores a critical tension in the market: optimism about the company’s long-term potential versus skepticism about its ability to navigate near-term headwinds. While 18 analysts have assigned an average 2025 target of €37.17 (a 63.89% upside from its €22.68 closing price), the spread—from Citi’s €23 to Bernstein’s €56—reveals deep uncertainty about the stock’s trajectory [3]. This divergence, coupled with deteriorating fundamentals and delayed breakeven forecasts, raises a pivotal question for investors: Is Delivery Hero still a compelling long-term bet, or is it becoming a fading growth story?

Analyst Optimism vs. Fundamental Realities

Delivery Hero’s Q2 2025 results were undeniably strong. Total segment revenue surged 27% year-over-year to €3.7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 71% to €411 million, reflecting operational efficiency and market share gains [1]. The company’s Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) grew 11% to €12.2 billion, with Asia—particularly South Korea—emerging as a key growth driver [3]. These metrics have fueled analyst optimism, with 14 of 18 analysts maintaining “Buy” or “Overweight” ratings [2].

However, the company’s full-year guidance has been sharply revised downward. Adjusted EBITDA expectations were cut to €900–940 million from €975–1,025 million, and free cash flow guidance was reduced by 40% to over €120 million, citing foreign exchange rate headwinds [6]. A stronger euro against the U.S. dollar and South Korean won has eroded margins, exposing Delivery Hero’s vulnerability to macroeconomic shifts. This divergence between operational performance and financial guidance highlights a critical risk: the company’s ability to sustain profitability in a volatile currency environment.

Historical data from four earnings-miss events between 2022 and 2025 shows that DHER’s stock typically underperformed in the short and medium term. On average, the stock fell 0.92% in one day and 1.49% over five days after a miss, with a 30-day cumulative return averaging -3.41% [6]. While the sample size is limited (n=4), these results suggest that earnings misses have historically pressured the stock, adding to the uncertainty around its near-term trajectory.

Valuation Realism and Contrarian Considerations

Delivery Hero’s valuation metrics further complicate the investment case. Its P/E ratio of -7.32 (as of September 2025) reflects current unprofitability, though it is less extreme than peers like Just Eat Takeaway.com (-2.49) and HelloFresh (-6.99) [1]. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.24x, however, suggests a more favorable valuation compared to its historical average of -81.4x [4]. This improvement aligns with the company’s first-ever positive operating result in H1 2025 and a robust cash balance of €2.8 billion [2].

Yet, the stock’s contrarian appeal is tempered by unrealistic expectations. Analysts project Delivery Hero to breakeven in 2026, requiring a 96% average annual growth rate to achieve €9.1 million in profits [1]. Such a trajectory is contingent on overcoming FX headwinds, maintaining market share in highly competitive regions, and scaling its quick-commerce initiatives (e.g., Dmart). The company’s EV/EBITDA of 9.24x may appear attractive, but it assumes a rapid transition from a loss-making entity to a profitable one—a leap of faith that could backfire if growth slows or costs rise.

Strategic Risks and Opportunities

Delivery Hero’s dominance in 70 countries and a €48.8 billion GMV in FY 2024 underscores its scale, but competition from Uber Eats, Grab, and Coupang remains fierce [5]. The company’s acquisitions of Glovo and Foodpanda have expanded its footprint, yet integration challenges and regulatory scrutiny in markets like India could hinder growth. Meanwhile, its foray into quick commerce—a high-margin, high-capital-expenditure sector—adds another layer of risk.

The stock’s current valuation hinges on the assumption that Delivery Hero can outperform peers in cost control and market expansion. While its 27% revenue growth and 71% EBITDA surge are impressive, these metrics must be sustained in a sector where margins are notoriously thin. The recent guidance cuts signal that analysts are factoring in macroeconomic fragility, yet the average €37.17 target price still implies a 63.89% upside—a premium that may not be justified if FX pressures persist or if competitors gain traction.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

Delivery Hero’s stock embodies the classic tension between growth and value investing. Analysts’ optimism is rooted in its market leadership, operational momentum, and strategic diversification, but these strengths are offset by deteriorating fundamentals and a valuation that assumes a near-miraculous turnaround. For contrarian investors, the stock could offer asymmetric upside if the company navigates FX headwinds and executes its quick-commerce strategy effectively. However, the wide divergence in price targets—from €23 to €56—reflects a market that is far from consensus.

In the end, Delivery Hero’s investment thesis rests on one critical question: Can it transform its current operational success into sustainable profitability? Until that question is answered, the stock remains a high-risk proposition, best suited for investors with a long-term horizon and a tolerance for volatility.

Source:
[1] Q2 and H1 2025 financial results [https://www.deliveryhero.com/newsroom/q2-and-h1-2025-financial-results-delivery-hero-accelerates-growth-and-expands-profitability-updates-full-year-guidance/]
[2] Delivery Hero SE: Target Price Consensus and Analysts [https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DELIVERY-HERO-SE-36718506/consensus/]
[3] Delivery Hero SE (DHER) Stock Forecast & Price Target [https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/de:dher/forecast]
[4] EV / EBITDA For Delivery Hero SE (DLVH.F) [https://finbox.com/OTCPK:DLVH.F/explorer/ev_to_ebitda_ltm]
[5] What is Competitive Landscape of Delivery Hero Company? [https://swotanalysisexample.com/blogs/competitors/deliveryhero-competitors]
[6] Q2 and H1 2025 financial results [https://www.deliveryhero.com/newsroom/q2-and-h1-2025-financial-results-delivery-hero-accelerates-growth-and-expands-profitability-updates-full-year-guidance/]