Why Greg Abel Likely Won't Sell This Berkshire Holding Built by Buffett

Berkshire's Latest Signal Points to Continuity

The "new CEO, new portfolio" narrative gained attention when Greg Abel took the stage, but the clearer signal so far is continuity. Warren Buffett told Becky Quick that Berkshire still has the right management and that the transition is working. That matters because investors can be quick to price a post-Buffett reset before any 13F filing actually shows one. Abel was raised inside Buffett's system, so unless the filings show otherwise, the portfolio's core DNA is more likely to persist than vanish.

Why American Express stands out

American Express is the clearest read-through. Berkshire has held the company for nearly 40 years, and it still represents 17.43% of the portfolio in Berkshire's latest disclosed equity holdings. That is not a stale position quietly lingering at the edges. It remains a center-of-gravity holding. Buffett's large cash balance may invite speculation that a fresh CEO needs room to make a statement, but the evidence so far points to selectivity, not an automatic portfolio reset.

The practical point is simple: a leadership handoff is not the same thing as an automatic portfolio purge. If continuity holds, Abel has more reasons to leave American Express in place than to sell it just to signal change.

American Express Still Fits Berkshire's Standard

That continuity signal matters because American Express is not just a sentiment holding. It is a premium lender with a structure that supports durable economics.

Why the business model still commands a premium

AXP combines its own payment network with card-issuing, which helps it capture more of the spending dollar than a purely credit-focused lender. Investors still appear to reward that structure, as shown by its 59.74% gross margin versus 23.70% at Berkshire and a 20.40 P/E ratio versus 15.21 at Berkshire. That premium valuation reflects the market's willingness to pay for a business with stronger pricing power and more resilience in a noisy cycle.

That standard fits Berkshire's own discipline. Buffett's comment that Berkshire still has the right management and the right arrangement strengthens the case for continuity. If that judgment extends across the company, Abel is more likely to keep assets that reward patience, brand strength, and disciplined capital allocation than to sell them simply to look different.

Why the customer mix still works

The demand base also still looks healthy. In Q2 2026, American Express generated 36% of spending volumes from Gen X, 31% from millennials, and 7% from Gen Z. More importantly, younger users were growing faster than older ones: Gen Z spending rose 40% year over year, while millennials increased 14%.

That does not remove risk, but it does argue against the idea that American Express is losing its next-generation appeal. A trim may make sense when a business is peaking; it makes less sense when the younger cohorts are already expanding faster than the older ones.

What would actually change the view

The main watchpoint is whether AXP keeps defending its premium mix and brand strength. If that weakens, the case for Berkshire remaining such a large holder gets harder. If it holds, the case for continuity stays intact.

Berkshire's 13F Shows Refinement, Not a Clean Break

The filing math looks more like portfolio tightening than a reset. Berkshire's disclosed equity book moved from about $274.2 billion across 42 positions to $263.1 billion across 29 holdings, while the top 10 holdings making up over 90% of assets shows the portfolio grew even more concentrated. That looks less like a retreat into caution and more like a decision to keep capital concentrated where conviction is highest.

What stayed matters more than what was sold

Recent exits may invite headlines, but the more important signal is what remained. American Express is still a dominant position inside Berkshire's core holdings, alongside Apple, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, and Chevron. That looks more like refinement than an ideological cleanup.

Skeptics may argue that every sale is a test of Abel's taste. Fair enough. But a real regime change is more likely to show up in which long-held favorites are reduced, not just in how many names remain. So far, Berkshire is still keeping major stakes in the businesses Buffett trusted for decades.

For now, the base case is continuity. Portfolio narrowing alone is not enough proof of a new playbook, and American Express is not the kind of position that disappears first if Berkshire is pruning rather than resetting.