GreensKeeper Asset Management Adds Novo Nordisk to Portfolio Amid GLP-1 Growth Potential

GreensKeeper Asset Management added Novo Nordisk (NVO) to its portfolio due to its strong GLP-1 franchise, including Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus. Despite competitor Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products Mounjaro and Zepbound, the market for GLP-1s is large enough for both companies to continue increasing revenues, and the market is undervaluing NVO's GLP-1 pipeline. Novo Nordisk has lost 57.89% of its value over the last 52 weeks and closed at $56.98 per share on August 22, 2025, with a market capitalization of $246.974 billion.

Novo Nordisk (NVO), a Danish pharmaceutical giant, has faced significant challenges in the GLP-1 drug market. The company's stock has plummeted, losing 57.89% of its value over the last 52 weeks and closing at $56.98 per share on August 22, 2025, with a market capitalization of $246.974 billion. Despite these setbacks, GreensKeeper Asset Management added Novo Nordisk to its portfolio, recognizing the potential in its strong GLP-1 franchise.

The GLP-1 market, which includes drugs like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus, is large enough for both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly (LLY) to continue increasing revenues. Despite Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, the market remains robust and undervalues Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pipeline.

Novo Nordisk's strategic differentiation lies in its ability to innovate within the GLP-1 space. The company is pivoting to combination therapies, with dual GLP-1/amylin analogs like CagriSema and unimolecular Amycretin in late-stage trials. These next-gen therapies could offer superior efficacy and reduced side effects, differentiating Novo Nordisk from competitors relying on single-hormone agonists.

Moreover, Novo Nordisk's recent $16.5 billion investment in manufacturing positions it to scale Wegovy production to 100 million doses annually by 2026. This addresses a critical weakness: supply shortages that allowed Lilly to capture market share. By 2026, Novo Nordisk could regain pricing power and distribution dominance, especially as compounded semaglutide alternatives face regulatory scrutiny.

However, Novo Nordisk faces near-term risks. Wegovy's U.S. patent expires in 2026, opening the door for generics. Medicare's "Most Favored Nation" pricing model could further compress margins. Despite these challenges, Novo Nordisk's global dominance in diabetes and its expanding obesity portfolio provide a buffer. Even if Wegovy faces generic competition, Novo Nordisk's next-gen therapies and oral options could sustain its revenue stream.

Investment Thesis: Buy the Dip, Not the Fire Sale

Novo Nordisk's fundamentals remain intact despite a 13% Q1 2025 revenue decline and a revised 8–14% growth outlook. Its P/E ratio of 32x (as of August 2025) is a discount to Lilly's 45x, reflecting market skepticism. Yet, Novo Nordisk's $16.5 billion manufacturing investment and $2.5 billion R&D budget signal confidence in long-term growth.

For investors, the key is patience. Novo Nordisk's strategic moves—scaling production, advancing combination therapies, and securing oral delivery—position it to reclaim market share by 2027. While Lilly's current dominance is undeniable, Novo Nordisk's moat in diabetes and its ability to iterate on GLP-1 science give it a unique edge.

References:

[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/novo-nordisk-undervalued-pharma-heavyweight-upside-potential-2508-71/
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/glp-1-market-dynamics-securities-fraud-risks-novo-nordisk-assessing-long-term-investment-viability-regulatory-legal-headwinds-2508/