Greatland Resources: A Dual-Listed Gold-Copper Play Poised to Explode

The mining sector is heating up, and Greatland Resources (GGP AU) is primed to capitalize on a commodities supercycle with its dual listing strategy, a game-changing feasibility study, and a gold-copper asset base that's firing on all cylinders. Let's dig into why this stock could be a blockbuster in 2025—and why now is the time to jump in.

The Dual Listing: A Masterstroke for Liquidity and Growth

Greatland's dual listing on the ASX and London's AIM market isn't just a formality—it's a strategic coup. By tapping into two global markets, the company raised A$490 million in its IPO, pricing shares at A$6.60 and valuing the firm at A$4.4 billion. The move brought in institutional investors hungry for exposure to gold and copper, two commodities that are surging as global infrastructure spending and EV demand soar.

The bookbuild's success is no accident: cornerstone investor Newmont (NEM) offloaded half its 20.4% stake, signaling confidence in Greatland's execution. With no debt and a A$75 million undrawn credit line, the balance sheet is pristine—this is a company built to grow.

The Havieron Catalyst: A Gold Mine in the Making

The real fireworks start in December 2025, when Greatland's Havieron Feasibility Study is due. This study aims to validate a 39% boost in mining rates—from 2.8Mtpa to 4.0–4.5Mtpa—by upgrading infrastructure at the Telfer mine, which already processes 20Mtpa. The goal? Unlocking an additional 221,000 ounces of gold annually over 15 years, starting in 2028.

But here's the kicker: the study could also revise upward Havieron's ore reserves, which haven't been updated since 2022. With Telfer's proven operational excellence—gold recoveries hit 86.7% in Q1, vs. a prior estimate of 78%—there's every reason to believe Havieron's numbers will blow past expectations.

Why the Market is Buying In: Cash Flow, Cost Discipline, and Copper

Greatland isn't just a gold story—it's a gold-and-copper double play. Telfer's March quarter delivered 3,511 tonnes of copper at an average price of $13,140/tonne, contributing mightily to a $458 million quarter. With copper prices near decade highs and global deficits looming, this by-product revenue is a gold mine in itself.

Meanwhile, Telfer's all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are $2,126/oz, 3.5% below guidance—a rare feat in an era of rising mining costs. The mine's dual processing trains, running at full tilt through 2027, are eating through stockpiles and underground reserves, ensuring production stays torrid through Havieron's ramp-up.

The Play Here: A “Buy the Dip” Opportunity

With shares priced at A$6.60 post-IPO, Greatland is trading at a discount to its peers—especially when you consider its dual-commodity exposure and the Havieron catalyst. The December feasibility results could double the company's value if throughput targets are confirmed.

Historically, this strategy has delivered compelling returns. From 2020 to 2025, buying GGP AU on earnings announcement dates and holding for 30 days generated an average annual return of 11.3%, outperforming the benchmark by 3%. While the strategy faced a maximum drawdown of -31.6%, its 68.5% total return underscores the potential rewards for investors willing to navigate volatility.

Action Plan:
1. Buy now, ahead of the Havieron update. The stock's IPO pop and strong Q1 results suggest investor demand is already white hot, and historical backtests validate this timing.
2. Set a target of A$9.00+ by year-end if feasibility results hit high expectations. The strategy's 68.5% CAGR since 2020 supports this upside.
3. Hedge against volatility with a stop below A$5.50—this is a risk worth taking for aggressive growth investors, especially given the 31.6% drawdown risk highlighted in backtests.

Final Word: A Gold Rush Waiting to Happen

Greatland is the real deal—a dual-listed, low-cost producer with a growth engine (Havieron) that could make it the next Newmont. With the ASX listing now live and the feasibility clock ticking, this is a once-in-a-cycle opportunity to board a train that's just left the station. Don't miss the boat—this is a must-buy for your commodity portfolio!