Grayscale's Cardano ETF Gets Closer to 87% Approval Odds

Grayscale has submitted new S-1 filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its proposed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT), signaling a renewed push for regulatory approval. According to recent data from Polymarket, the likelihood of the Cardano ETF receiving approval has climbed to 87%, a notable increase from 75% just one week earlier. This uptick reflects Grayscale’s persistent efforts to finalize regulatory compliance and bring the ETF to market, with the firm having submitted an amended S-1 form for the Cardano ETF on August 29, 2025 [1]. The filing updates a prior 19b-4 application and outlines plans for the product to be listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol GADA. If approved, the ETF would directly hold ADA tokens and track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index, avoiding the use of leverage or derivatives [2].

Grayscale’s strategy for the Cardano ETF aligns with its broader approach to crypto investments, including institutional-grade custody services provided by Coinbase Custody. The firm has also taken similar steps for a Polkadot ETF, highlighting its continued commitment to expanding its lineup of crypto-based financial products [2]. Analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg noted that these filings are not entirely new but represent amendments to ongoing applications, reinforcing the company’s long-term vision for crypto ETFs [2].

Despite Grayscale’s proactive measures, the SEC has delayed its decision on the Cardano ETF to October 26, 2025. Originally scheduled for August 27, the extended timeline reflects the agency’s broader regulatory caution, as it currently handles 96 separate crypto ETF applications. While this delay may introduce uncertainty, analysts view it as a procedural formality rather than an obstacle to approval. Recent regulatory developments, such as the SEC’s clarification that certain staking activities are not considered securities, have contributed to a more favorable environment for crypto ETFs [1]. Additionally, the Cardano token has demonstrated strong performance in recent weeks, ranking third in Grayscale’s list of top crypto assets by weekly returns, behind XRP and Stellar [2].

The firm’s Cardano ETF proposal was initially submitted in February under NYSE Arca’s commodity-based trust rule, and multiple amendments have since been filed to refine the product. The SEC has now opened the application for public comment, a standard step in the approval process [2]. Grayscale has also secured preliminary acknowledgment from the SEC for its 19b-4 form, indicating that the regulator is processing the application [3].

The potential approval of the Grayscale Cardano ETF would mark a significant milestone for both the firm and the crypto market. The product is expected to provide investors with a more accessible and regulated way to gain exposure to Cardano, further legitimizing the cryptocurrency as a mainstream financial asset. With October positioned as a key month for regulatory decisions, many in the market are anticipating a favorable outcome before the end of the year [1]. The growing interest in crypto ETFs, coupled with Grayscale’s regulatory expertise, suggests that the firm’s efforts are well-aligned with the evolving landscape of digital asset investing.

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[1] Cardano ETF Approval Odds Soar to 87% After Grayscale ... (https://coincentral.com/cardano-etf-approval-odds-soar-to-87-after-grayscale-s-1-filing/)

[2] Cardano ETF Approval Odds Jumps as Grayscale Files ... (https://coingape.com/cardano-etf-approval-odds-jumps-as-grayscale-files-amended-s-1-with-sec/)

[3] Cardano ETF Approval Now 87% Likely Before Major ... (https://u.today/cardano-etf-approval-now-87-likely-before-major-deadline)