Gravity/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Gravity/Tether (GUSDT) declined by ~0.75% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and high volatility.
• Price tested key support levels multiple times, with bearish engulfing patterns observed in late ET hours.
• Volume spiked sharply during the sell-off, but turnover failed to confirm strength in short-term bearish moves.

Gravity/Tether (GUSDT) opened at $0.00673 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00622 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The pair hit a high of $0.00673 and a low of $0.00606 within the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 43,848,239.0, while notional turnover reached $275,206. The pair appears to be in a short-term bearish phase, with price failing to reclaim key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

On the 15-minute chart, GUSDT formed a series of bearish engulfing patterns after 17:00 ET on 2025-11-11, signaling growing bearish sentiment. A key support zone emerged around $0.0062–$0.00625, which was tested multiple times, with the most recent rejection at $0.00622. A doji formed near $0.00624 at 03:30 ET, suggesting indecision, though the subsequent candle confirmed the breakdown.

Moving Averages

Price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day moving averages are converging, with GUSDT trading slightly above the 200-day average, suggesting limited bearish conviction on longer timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remains below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI declined to ~35, indicating oversold conditions, though without signs of a reversal. A bearish divergence was observed between the RSI and price action in the last 12 hours, increasing the likelihood of a continued downward move.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for most of the session, with a volatility contraction observed around 16:00–18:00 ET. The bands widened again as the sell-off intensified after 20:00 ET, suggesting an increase in risk and directional uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 5.4 million at 16:15 ET as the price dropped below $0.0062, confirming the breakdown. However, the lack of corresponding turnover spikes suggests the move was driven by large, low-cost selling rather than broad market participation. A volume divergence was observed at $0.00625–$0.00627, where volume weakened despite price attempts to rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend from $0.00673 to $0.00606 resides at ~$0.00622, where price found a temporary floor. A bounce from this level would need to reclaim $0.00625 to suggest short-term stability. Daily retracement levels suggest resistance at $0.00634 and $0.00639, which could determine the near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD Death Cross strategy has been backtested on GUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, revealing 17 such signals. The average 30-day return following a Death Cross was –11.5%, slightly worse than the –10.1% benchmark, but the difference is not statistically significant. Win rates remain below 35% for most of the holding period, with no clear edge in downside risk. While Death Crosses coincide with prolonged weakness, they do not offer a reliable predictive signal for excess downside movement. This aligns with the current technical environment, where GUSDT has recently confirmed a bearish cross. Investors should treat such signals as part of a broader risk management framework rather than as standalone trade triggers.