Gravity/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined sharply overnight but found support near 0.00586, consolidating ahead of a potential rebound.
• RSI remains oversold, indicating possible short-term reversal, while volume surged during the breakdown.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening as the pair fluctuated between 0.00574 and 0.00623.

Gravity/Tether (GUSDT) opened at 0.00616 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.00623 and a low of 0.00574 before closing at 0.00627 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 79,264,015. Total turnover (volume × price) was approximately $485,988.

Structure & Formations

The pair broke below a key support at 0.00595 during the early hours of the morning, confirming a bearish bias for much of the day. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.00595, reinforcing the breakdown. Price later found support at 0.00586 and began a recovery, forming a bullish harami pattern around 0.00592–0.00593. These structures suggest a possible countertrend rally from the oversold zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period EMAs have converged around the 0.00600–0.00605 range, acting as dynamic support for the recent rebound. The 50-period EMA crossed above the 20-period EMA just before 17:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term recovery. However, the 200-period daily SMA remains well above the current price level, suggesting a bearish bias on the daily timeframe.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines crossed below zero during the breakdown, with a bearish signal line cross reinforcing the move. However, a bullish crossover occurred after 01:00 ET as volume surged on the rebound. RSI fell into the 25–30 oversold zone during the morning lows, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. If RSI remains above 35 in the next few hours, it could confirm a near-term bottoming process.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly to capture the swing between 0.00574 and 0.00623. Price currently sits near the middle band at 0.00605, having bounced from the lower band during the morning session. A close above the upper band would confirm a short-term reversal, while a retest of the lower band may trigger further selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown as price fell below 0.00595, with a large 15-minute bar at 20:30 ET showing 9,178,096 units traded. This was followed by another large volume spike at 22:30 ET as price rallied. Notional turnover also spiked during these moves, suggesting meaningful participation from larger players. The recent consolidation has seen a volume contraction, indicating a potential pause in action ahead of the next move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.00574 to 0.00623 swing, the 38.2% level sits at 0.00598 and the 61.8% level at 0.00613, both of which have been tested in recent 15-minute bars. Price currently appears to be consolidating around the 50% level at 0.00599–0.00601, which may be a critical area for the next few hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To build a rigorous back-test, we need to translate the above observations into precise trading rules. For this Gravity/Tether (GUSDT) pair, the proposed backtest could focus on capturing short-term countertrend rallies from oversold conditions, with RSI and MACD acting as key signals. For example, a long entry could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 and MACD crosses above the signal line on the 15-minute chart, with exits based on the most recent swing-low support or a fixed 5% trailing stop. A 50/20 EMA crossover could also serve as a dynamic filter to align with the prevailing trend.