Graphic Packaging 2025 Q3 Earnings Revenue Beats Estimates Amid Earnings Decline

Graphic Packaging (GPK) reported fiscal 2025 Q3 results on Nov 5, 2025, with revenue slightly exceeding estimates despite a year-over-year decline. The company lowered full-year EBITDA and EPS guidance, citing market challenges.

Graphic Packaging’s total revenue fell 1.2% year-over-year to $2.19 billion, with Americas Paperboard Packaging leading at $1.47 billion. International Paperboard Packaging contributed $582 million, while the Corporate and Other segment added $134 million. The Americas segment’s strong performance was partially offset by weaker results in other regions.

The company’s adjusted EPS declined 12.7% to $0.48, and net income dropped 13.9% to $142 million. The earnings shortfall reflects broader operational pressures, including margin compression and guidance revisions.

Post-earnings, the stock experienced mixed short-term volatility. Immediate pre-market trading saw a 5.75% drop, but the stock later recovered to a 1.98% gain over 30 days. Long-term performance remains constrained by macroeconomic factors and management’s cautious outlook.

CEO Commentary

Michael Doss emphasized strategic progress, including the early commercial production of recycled paperboard at the Waco facility. He highlighted cost reductions, inventory management, and innovation-driven market expansion.

Guidance

Graphic Packaging revised full-year 2025 EBITDA to $1.40–$1.45 billion (from $1.45–$1.55 billion) and adjusted EPS to $1.80–$2.00 (from $1.90–$2.20). These adjustments reflect ongoing challenges in consumer demand and pricing pressures.

Additional News

Waco Facility Launch: The company achieved commercial production at its Texas facility ahead of schedule, enhancing recycled paperboard capacity.

Share Repurchases: Graphic Packaging repurchased 1.8 million shares in Q3, signaling confidence in long-term value.

Analyst Price Targets: Truist maintained a $20 price target and “Hold” rating, citing undervaluation despite near-term risks.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Graphic Packaging’s stock exhibited mixed post-earnings behavior. While the 30-day period after the Q3 2025 revenue beat showed a 1.98% gain, the stock initially fell 5.75% pre-market, reflecting investor skepticism about revised guidance and margin pressures. Historical data on revenue beats is limited, with only two recent instances (Q2 and Q3 2025) showing inconsistent short-term outcomes. The Q2 2025 beat coincided with a 14.8% year-to-date decline, underscoring the influence of macroeconomic factors. Investors should consider management’s focus on innovation and cost control alongside market conditions before adopting a 30-day holding strategy.