The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility, Dips, and Potential Reversals

• Price declined intraday from 0.065 to 0.06334, with a 24-hour close near 0.06403
• Momentum weakened in RSI and MACD, suggesting a possible short-term oversold condition
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening from 0.064 to 0.065
• On-chain volume peaked near 1.09M at 15:00 ET, confirming price dips
• Hammer patterns emerged in late trading, hinting at a potential bullish reversal

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.06392 (12:00 ET − 1), hit a high of 0.06507, and a low of 0.06334, closing at 0.06403 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 50,646,000 and turnover reached $3,228,983. Price action showed a bearish bias in early trading before stabilizing, with volume confirming key dips and a potential bullish reversal at the close.

Structure and formations revealed a recent swing high of 0.06507 and a swing low of 0.06334, forming a consolidation range. A hammer pattern emerged at 0.06370 in late trading, suggesting buyers may be stepping in. Resistance appears near 0.0645–0.0648, with support likely at 0.0636–0.0639. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart was around 0.0642, while the 50-period sat slightly lower, indicating a potential bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was near 0.0640, aligning with the 100-period MA and forming a neutral stance.

Momentum indicators showed mixed signals. The MACD crossed into negative territory, with a bearish divergence forming as prices dipped and momentum weakened. RSI fell into the 30–40 range, suggesting a potential oversold condition and possible near-term reversal. The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, with prices hovering near the lower band in the early part of the session, indicating heightened volatility and possible reversion toward the mean in the near term.

Volume and turnover spiked during key price dips, particularly around 05:15 ET and 15:00 ET, confirming bearish pressure. However, a volume rebound in the final hours of the session, especially at the hammer pattern, hinted at a potential shift in sentiment. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, but the overall volume profile supported the idea of a short-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute swing showed a key 61.8% level at 0.0644, which was tested but not broken. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the recent range was near 0.0647, acting as a potential near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A quantitative backtest was conducted to assess the predictive value of using both the Bullish Engulfing and Hammer candlestick patterns as combined entry signals. The strategy entailed entering at the close of the signal day and exiting after a fixed three-day holding period. Over the test window (2022-01-01 to 2025-10-25), the approach produced a total return of -13.41% with a Sharpe ratio of -0.52, indicating poor risk-adjusted performance. The average trade was a loss of 6.53%, and the worst trade resulted in a drawdown of 15.29%. These findings suggest that the tight entry filter—requiring both patterns to appear on the same day—generated very few signals and failed to provide a consistent edge. A more flexible approach, using either pattern alone or combining with risk controls like stop-loss or take-profit, might yield better results. The results highlight the importance of balancing signal specificity with market participation when developing candlestick-based strategies.