The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price declined from $0.05577 to $0.05572 over 24 hours amid uneven volume distribution.
• RSI and MACD show waning momentum with mixed signals on overbought levels.
• Volatility expanded after 18:00 ET as price broke below key 15-minute support levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the drop, suggesting possible consolidation ahead.
• Turnover surged during key breakdowns, indicating active liquidation in the pair.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.05572 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.05577 before closing at $0.05572 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $0.05152, with the price ending the period near the upper end of the range. Total volume reached 25.9 million GRT tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.45 million.

The 15-minute chart shows a breakdown pattern beginning around 18:00 ET, with a bearish engulfing candle signaling a shift in sentiment. A notable doji formed near $0.05339, indicating indecision at a critical support level. The price appears to be consolidating around $0.0553–$0.0558, with potential resistance at $0.05585 and support at $0.05520. The 20-period moving average is bearish, pulling below the 50-period line, suggesting a short-term downtrend may continue.

MACD has turned negative, aligning with the bearish price action, while RSI is approaching overbought territory despite the recent decline, hinting at a potential retest of key support. Bollinger Bands have expanded, confirming increased volatility during the 18:00–22:00 ET window. The pair may find direction after testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 15-minute swing at $0.05525, with a possible bounce or breakdown from this level expected.

The volume profile shows spikes between 20:30–22:00 ET, corresponding to major price declines. Notional turnover increased significantly during these hours, suggesting active participation. However, volume during the recent rally has been weak, indicating a lack of follow-through in the bullish direction. This divergence may signal a potential reversal, but confirmation is needed before taking a definitive position.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest results over the past three years reveal a negative aggregate return of –56.9 %, with an annualised return of –4.27 % and a Sharpe ratio of –0.09, indicating poor risk-adjusted performance. Winners averaged a modest +10.7 %, while losers averaged –10.2 %, showing high volatility and a bias toward losing trades. These results align with the current technical setup, where momentum indicators are mixed and volume has been inconsistent. The strategy tested held positions for a strict 7-day horizon without stop-loss or take-profit rules. Introducing risk controls could mitigate the negative impact of large drawdowns, such as the 65.7 % maximum drawdown observed in the backtest. A refined approach using tighter stop-loss levels or shorter holding periods may be worth exploring for this volatile pair.