Grail (GRAL) Plummets 10%—What’s Behind the Sell-Off?

• Grail’s stock collapses 10.43% to $34.51, hitting a 52-week low of $12.33
• SEC Form 144 filing reveals affiliate plans to sell 8,000 shares, following 41,150 shares offloaded in May
• Technicals show RSI at 39.10, below oversold, with Bollinger Bands squeezed near historic lows

Grail’s brutal selloff on July 16 erases nearly $10 of value per share intraday, fueled by recurring insider selling and technical breakdowns. The stock trades at its lowest since 2023, with liquidity drying up as turnover dips to 2.06%.

Insider Selling Sparks Panic Sell-Off
The plunge traces directly to SEC filings revealing affiliate Aaron Freidin’s second major sale in two months. While the 8,000-share offering represents just 0.03% of shares outstanding, the cumulative effect of Freidin’s 49,150 shares sold since May amplifies skepticism. Despite the filer’s compliance with Rule 10b5-1 and no material adverse info disclosed, institutional investors are pricing in liquidity risks. The implied sale price of $40.18—above current levels—hints at a widening gap between insider valuations and market sentiment.

Technical Downtrends and Bearish Options Signal Opportunity
• 200-day Average: $28.15 (well below current price)
• RSI: 39.10 (neutral, not yet oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $37.89—price now trades below this key support

Grail’s bearish momentum is reinforced by a MACD crossover into negative territory (-1.233 histogram). Short-term traders should watch $34.51 (current low) as critical support, with potential breakdown to $28.15 (200-day MA). While sector leader Guardant Health (GH) holds up (+0.64%), GRAL’s standalone issues suggest no immediate contagion risk.
Top Option Picks:
1. GRAL20250815P35: Put option with strike $35, expiring August 15.
- Volume: 25 | Turnover: $9,361
- Delta: -0.426 (42% downside exposure)
- Gamma: 0.034 (sensitive to price swings)
- Theta: -0.044 (moderate time decay)
- Leverage: 7.98% (potential 41.34% gain if price drops below $35)
- Why: Prime short-term hedge with solid liquidity.
2. GRAL20250919P30: Put option at $30 strike, expiring September 19.
- Volume: 13 | Turnover: $3,840
- Delta: -0.271 (27% downside exposure)
- Gamma: 0.023 (stable gamma)
- Theta: -0.028 (slow decay)
- Leverage: 11.71% (33.33% upside if price sinks to $28+)
- Why: Offers asymmetric risk/reward for deeper declines.
Payoff Scenario: Assuming a 5% drop to $32.79:

• GRAL20250815P35 payoff: $2.21 (35-32.79)

• GRAL20250919P30 payoff: $7.21 (30-22.79)

Trading Hook: Aggressive shorts should stack GRAL20250815P35 now—break below $34.51 opens door to $28 support levels.

Backtest Grail Stock Performance
The backtest of the Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (GRAL) after a -10% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 50%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 45.59%, and the 30-day win rate is 48.53%. This indicates that GRAL has a decent chance of recovering from a significant intraday dip, but the returns over the short-term backtested periods are relatively modest, with a maximum return of only 1.66% over 30 days.

Bearish Momentum Dominates—Watch for Further Support Breaks
Grail’s 10% plunge underscores a loss of faith in its valuation despite negligible insider stake exposure. While the Biotechnology sector holds up modestly (GH +0.64%), GRAL’s technicals and recurring selling paint a bearish outlook. Investors should monitor $28.15 (200-day MA) as a key battleground—failure here risks retesting 2023 lows near $12.33. Focus on gamma-rich puts like GRAL20250815P35 to capitalize on short-term volatility. Action Alert: Sell-off could accelerate if $34.51 breaks—position for further downside now.