Government Shutdown Threatens Release of October CPI and Jobs Data

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has triggered a critical disruption in the release of key economic indicators, with October consumer price index (CPI) and employment data at risk of permanent omission. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on November 12 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will likely cease publication of these reports due to furloughed staff during the shutdown . This development has raised alarms among policymakers and economists, who rely on these metrics to assess inflationary pressures and labor market health .

The absence of October CPI data, which tracks changes in the price level of a basket of goods and services, could obscure the Federal Reserve’s understanding of inflation trends at a pivotal time. The BLS typically releases monthly CPI figures to inform monetary policy decisions, but staff furloughs during the shutdown have halted data collection and processing . Similarly, the October jobs report—which measures nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, and wage growth—may never be published, leaving a gap in the government’s ability to monitor labor market conditions .

The White House has attributed this breakdown to the shutdown’s impact on federal statistical systems, with Leavitt stating that Democrats “permanently damaged the federal statistical system” by prolonging the funding impasse . While the House of Representatives prepared to vote on a government funding bill by November 13, the prolonged disruption has already compromised the integrity of data collection processes . Economists warn that certain statistical methods used for CPI and employment surveys, such as real-time interviews and price tracking, cannot be retroactively completed once fieldwork windows close .

This data void poses immediate challenges for the Federal Reserve, which faces a critical period in its policy-making calendar. With inflation near the central bank’s 2% target and labor market slack remaining a concern, the lack of October data could force the Fed to make decisions based on incomplete or outdated information . Leavitt emphasized that the absence of these reports “leaves our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” highlighting the potential for misaligned monetary policy .

The implications extend beyond U.S. borders, as global markets and trading partners rely on American economic data to calibrate their own policy responses. For instance, emerging markets with currency pegs to the U.S. dollar may struggle to adjust exchange rates without timely inflation and employment signals . Additionally, multinational corporations operating in the U.S. face uncertainty in planning investments and pricing strategies without access to the latest labor cost and wage growth data .

The episode underscores systemic vulnerabilities in the U.S. statistical infrastructure, where political gridlock can directly impair economic governance. The BLS and other agencies have suspended operations since the shutdown began, raising questions about the resilience of data collection systems during similar future disruptions . While some statistical agencies may eventually resume work, the irrecoverable loss of October’s data highlights the fragility of real-time economic monitoring .