The US Government Reopening as a Catalyst for Cryptocurrency Market Recovery

The government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, drained approximately 8% of liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA), contributing to a 5% decline in Bitcoin's price during the same period, according to a Coinotag report. With the Senate advancing a bill to fund the government until January 30, 2026, the Treasury is expected to resume spending, injecting liquidity into markets and stabilizing economic conditions, as reported by Coinrise. This liquidity surge mirrors historical patterns, such as the 2020 and 2023 cycles, where government reopenings triggered crypto rebounds.

Regulatory clarity further amplifies the bullish case. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House in July 2025 and is nearing Senate approval, will enable banks and institutional players to custody and trade crypto ETFs on a large scale, according to the Coinotag report. This legislative progress, coupled with the Federal Reserve's potential dovish pivot, could unlock billions in institutional capital for digital assets.

Bitcoin: A Critical Support Test and MACD Buy Signal

Bitcoin's technical outlook hinges on its ability to hold above $99,200, a historic support level. As of November 6, 2025, the RSI stands at 45 on the daily chart, trending upward, while the MACD lines are converging with decreasing red histogram bars, signaling waning bearish momentum, according to FXStreet. A sustained close above $106,000 could trigger a buy signal from the MACD, propelling Bitcoin toward the 200-day EMA at $108,028.

However, risks remain. A breakdown below $104,000 could trigger a short-term correction to $98,000, particularly if ETF inflows fail to rebound, as Coinpedia noted. Investors should monitor the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $106,453 as a key psychological threshold.

Ethereum: Altcoin Rotation and ETH/BTC Ratio Dynamics

Ethereum exhibits early signs of outperforming Bitcoin in a post-reopening environment. The ETH/BTC ratio has consolidated above key support levels, with the RSI at 44, suggesting balanced conditions, according to Coinotag. If Bitcoin stalls near resistance while Ethereum gains strength, the ratio could rise to 0.037–0.038 BTC, or even 0.0405 BTC-a 15% increase, as Coinotag noted. This scenario would likely drive inflows into altcoins, benefiting Ethereum's price action.

XRP: A Bearish Death Cross and Structural Weakness

In contrast, XRP faces a challenging technical landscape. A death cross pattern on its daily chart-where the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day average-signals a potential downtrend continuation, according to Coinotag. The asset is consolidating around $2.54 in an ascending triangle, with resistance clustered at $2.70–$2.80 and limited support below current levels. A breakdown below the 50-day moving average could push XRP toward $2.35 or $2.10, as Coinotag reported.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

For Bitcoin, a strategic entry point emerges if the price stabilizes above $104,000, with a stop-loss below $99,200 to mitigate downside risk. Ethereum's ETH/BTC ratio offers a compelling case for altcoin rotation, particularly if Bitcoin's momentum stalls. XRP, however, remains a high-risk trade, with a bearish bias until it breaks above $2.70.

Macroeconomic signals also warrant attention. The Senate's budget agreement, if finalized, could stabilize economic indicators like federal employment and food assistance programs, reducing market volatility, as NPR reported. Meanwhile, the $500 billion liquidity injection-scheduled for November 10-may act as a parabolic catalyst for crypto markets, as Coinotag reported.

Conclusion

The U.S. government reopening has created a favorable backdrop for cryptocurrency recovery, driven by liquidity injections, regulatory progress, and improving technical indicators. While Bitcoin and Ethereum present compelling entry opportunities, XRP's bearish structure demands caution. Investors should balance macroeconomic optimism with disciplined risk management, using key support/resistance levels and RSI/MACD signals to time their positions.