Google Reduces Quantum Computing Requirements for Bitcoin Encryption by 95%

Google has significantly reduced the quantum computing requirements needed to potentially crack Bitcoin's encryption. According to a leading quantum computing researcher at Google, Craig Gidney, the hardware requirements to break 2048-bit RSA encryption, a key mathematical element similar to that of Bitcoin, have dropped from 20 million noisy qubits to fewer than one million.

This reduction in computational burden marks a significant leap in quantum capability, though it might take several days instead of a few hours. Gidney attributes this advancement to more refined quantum algorithms and enhanced error correction techniques that reduce the number of physical qubits needed by encoding logical qubits more efficiently.

These revelations come as concerns grow over the pace of quantum computing development. Last year, Google introduced its Willow chip, a next-generation quantum processor that many believe brought real-world threats to digital security closer than previously assumed.

In response, major financial institutions are updating their disclosures. For example, BlackRock recently flagged quantum computing as a material risk for its Bitcoin ETF product. The firm stated that if quantum computing technology advances significantly, it could potentially undermine the viability of many cryptographic algorithms used across the world’s information technology infrastructure, including those used for digital assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the concern, some experts believe the crypto sector still has time to adapt to the potential risks. Today’s logical-qubit demos top out at dozens, and Gidney’s 1,000,000-qubit figure is about physical (noisy) qubits, not logical. We’re three orders of magnitude away in sheer qubit count, and need major error-rate breakthroughs.

Even the physical-qubit goal is likely 8–12 years out, and a true million-logical-qubit machine is decades away. Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst Fred Krueger believes the emergence of a “quantum-resistant” version of the top crypto is inevitable. He anticipates a network split between a newly fortified Bitcoin and a legacy version, similar to how Ethereum split into ETH and Ethereum Classic.

Krueger stated, “Ultimately there will be a fork. ‘Quantum Resistant Bitcoin (QRB)’ and ‘Bitcoin Classic.’ The big money will recognize and push QRB. Some will fight it. Bitcoin Classic (BTC) will become the new Ethereum Classic.” Still, if Bitcoin becomes vulnerable in eight years, the network will not have long to adopt a quantum-resistant upgrade.