Google's Gemini Gains AI Confidence on Kalshi with 57% Bet Share

A majority of participants in the prediction market platform Kalshi are expressing confidence in Google’s Gemini AI model, with 57% of bettors forecasting that Gemini will become the top AI text model by 2025 [1]. This represents a significant increase from the previous day’s 48.1%, signaling a shift in market sentiment toward the model. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen its odds fall to 20% from 25.4%, and xAI’s Grok has dropped to 15% from 18.8%.

The prediction scenario will be resolved on December 31, 2025, with bettors receiving their payouts based on the outcome determined by the LM Arena Leaderboard, an open platform for accessing and evaluating leading AI models [1]. The bet volume for this particular scenario has already reached $7.4 million, underscoring the growing interest in AI model forecasting.

Google has bolstered Gemini’s prospects with recent updates, including a storybook mode, an improved reasoning model, and a temporary chat feature that does not save user history [1]. These enhancements appear to be resonating with both the public and market participants, who are increasingly viewing Gemini as a formidable competitor in the AI race.

Conversely, OpenAI has faced setbacks, including a poorly received rollout of ChatGPT-5, prompting CEO Sam Altman to defend the update on X. xAI’s Grok has also encountered controversy, with users criticizing it for alleged political bias and the company having to delete certain posts linked to inappropriate content [1]. These incidents have likely contributed to the declining odds for these models.

The competition for dominance in the large language model space is intensifying, with companies vying for leadership in multiple domains, including internet search. Recently, Perplexity AI made a $34.5 billion unsolicited offer to purchase Google’s Chrome browser, while OpenAI is reportedly also interested in acquiring it [1]. In parallel, Chinese AI firm DeepSeek has made strides with the release of Prover 2, a math-optimized model.

However, regulatory headwinds may impact the trajectory of AI development. In October 2024, G7 nations’ antitrust authorities indicated they may take action to preserve competition in the AI sector [1]. Google and Meta are already facing antitrust lawsuits in the U.S., which could influence the competitive landscape over the next year.

The Kalshi betting data, while speculative, reflects broader public and investor perceptions. As Gemini continues to evolve, its ability to maintain this level of market confidence will depend on further performance, adoption, and innovation in the months ahead.

Source: [1] Kalshi Bettors Predict Gemini Will Be Top AI Model of 2025 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/57-percent-kalshi-bettors-predict-gemini-top-ai-text-model-2025)