Google Faces a €3 Billion Legal Battle Over Market Dominance in Italy: What Investors Need to Know

Italy’s Moltiply Group has ignited a new front in the global antitrust war against Google, filing a €2.97 billion lawsuit in Milan alleging the tech giant abused its dominance in search and advertising markets. The case, which draws parallels to the EU’s landmark 2017 antitrust ruling against Google, highlights growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech’s market power—and poses risks to Alphabet’s valuation and strategic flexibility.

The Lawsuit: Background and Claims

Moltiply, owner of the Italian price comparison site Trovaprezzi.it, claims Google stifled its subsidiary 7Pixel’s growth by favoring its own Google Shopping service in search results between 2010 and 2017. The lawsuit alleges this practice violated EU antitrust laws, as Google leveraged its dominance in search to divert traffic to its own platforms, depriving rivals of visibility and revenue.

This mirrors the EU’s 2017 decision to fine Google €2.42 billion for similar conduct, which Google lost in a final appeal in 2024. Moltiply argues that Google’s actions during the period in question cost it billions in lost opportunities. The case is now proceeding in Italy’s courts, with Google yet to comment beyond a brief refusal to address specifics.

Regulatory Context: A Global Trend Against Tech Monopolies

The Moltiply lawsuit is part of a broader wave of antitrust actions targeting Google’s dominance:
- EU Digital Markets Act (DMA): The EU’s 2023 law targeting “gatekeeper” platforms requires tech giants to grant competitors fair access to their ecosystems.
- U.S. Antitrust Cases: The DOJ’s 2024 ruling found Google unlawfully monopolized ad tech markets, with remedies potentially requiring divestitures of Chrome or Android.

The Milan case adds pressure to Alphabet’s already strained regulatory environment. If successful, the ruling could set a precedent for other competitors to seek damages, further complicating Google’s ability to operate freely in Europe.

Investor Implications: Risks and Opportunities

Short-Term Risks

1. Financial Impact: A ruling in Moltiply’s favor could force Google to pay €2.97 billion in damages—a manageable sum for Alphabet’s ~€160 billion in cash and equivalents but a symbolic blow.
2. Regulatory Overhang: The case underscores the risk of future lawsuits and fines, which could divert resources from growth areas like AI and cloud computing.
3. Stock Volatility: shows sensitivity to regulatory news. A negative ruling could trigger a sell-off, especially if the case inspires copycat lawsuits.

Long-Term Concerns

• Structural Changes: If the EU or U.S. force Alphabet to divest key assets (e.g., Chrome, Android), it could destabilize its ecosystem and ad revenue.
• Competitor Gains: Rivals like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or DuckDuckGo could benefit from reduced Google dominance in search and ads.
• AI Vulnerabilities: Alphabet’s AI projects (e.g., Gemini) rely on ad revenue and data from search. Regulatory setbacks could slow innovation.

Mitigating Factors

• Appeals Process: Legal outcomes are uncertain, and Google may delay enforcement through prolonged litigation.
• Market Resilience: Google’s 90%+ search market share and $280 billion annual ad revenue remain formidable barriers to competition.

Market Analysis: How Investors Should React

1. Monitor Regulatory Progress: Track rulings in the U.S. antitrust case (expected by August 2025) and any updates on Moltiply’s lawsuit.
2. Consider Competitors: Microsoft and ad tech firms like The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) could gain if Google’s ad dominance erodes.
3. Risk-Adjusted Valuation: Alphabet’s stock (NASDAQ: GOOGL) trades at ~$140, down from a 2021 peak of ~$3,000. While the Moltiply case is a risk, it may already be priced into the stock.

Conclusion

The Moltiply lawsuit is a wake-up call for investors in Alphabet’s stock. While the €3 billion claim is significant, the broader threat lies in the cumulative impact of global antitrust actions. If regulators succeed in dismantling Google’s monopolistic practices, Alphabet’s valuation could face a reckoning—particularly if structural remedies disrupt its core ad business.

However, Google’s entrenched dominance and cash flow suggest resilience. Investors must weigh short-term regulatory risks against Alphabet’s long-term innovation pipeline. For now, the case serves as a reminder that Big Tech’s unchecked growth era is ending—and investors should prepare for a more regulated future.

As regulators worldwide tighten their grip, the stakes for Alphabet—and the broader tech sector—are higher than ever.