Google I/O 2025 Preview: AI in the Spotlight as Search Pressure Mounts

When Sundar Pichai steps onto the stage at 1 p.m. ET today to kick off Google I/O 2025, the stakes will be unusually high for Alphabet. The stock has been under pressure for months, weighed down by investor concerns that AI-driven competitors such as OpenAI, Perplexity, and Meta’s Llama are beginning to encroach on the search-based advertising model that remains Google’s golden goose. Shares have traded below their 200-day moving average since February, hovering just beneath a critical resistance level near $172. For Google, today isn’t just about showcasing software—it’s about convincing investors it can lead in the AI arms race and future-proof its core business.

What to Expect at Google I/O

This year’s keynote will be heavy on artificial intelligence, with less emphasis on Android or hardware. The Android 16 news cycle was frontloaded into last week's standalone “Android Show,” clearing the stage for what’s likely to be a multi-hour showcase of Gemini, Project Astra, Android XR, and next-gen AI search experiences.

Gemini AI Update: Expect a deeper look at the new Gemini 2.5 Pro “I/O Edition,” including broader integration across Android, Google Workspace, YouTube, and even Google TV and Wear OS. Google will likely emphasize that Gemini usage is catching up with ChatGPT in the U.S., particularly in commercial search categories like e-commerce and product comparisons—key advertising verticals.

Project Astra: This ambitious voice-and-vision AI assistant, introduced last year, is expected to re-emerge with new capabilities. Astra is designed to respond to queries in real time using both language and visual input. Last year’s demo impressed, but this year’s update will need to show tangible progress and real-world viability.

Android XR & Project Moohan: Google is expected to highlight progress on its extended reality (XR) platform and smart glasses built in partnership with Samsung. Look for a possible preview of consumer-ready hardware and an update on the role Gemini will play in ambient computing.

AI Overviews and Search Redesign: As AI agents like Perplexity roll out integrated commerce capabilities—letting users search and transact without ever seeing a traditional ad—Google is under pressure to demonstrate how AI can enhance monetized search, not cannibalize it. Expect updates on “AI Mode” and new layouts for AI-generated search results.

Imagen & Veo: Google's image- and video-generation tools will likely see upgrades. These are positioned to compete with OpenAI’s Sora and other creative AI platforms and could eventually integrate into YouTube, Google Slides, and social tools.

NotebookLM and AI Productivity Tools: Already soft-launched ahead of the event, NotebookLM is a machine-learning-driven note-taking app. Google could announce deeper integration with Gmail, Docs, and Drive—making AI a more seamless part of everyday workflows.

Pinterest-Style Visual Search Tool: A rumored product allowing users to visually search and save images into personalized folders may debut. This could be tied directly to Search or act as a standalone competitor to Pinterest and Cosmos.

Wear OS & Android Auto: While not the headline, look for modest updates to Wear OS 6 and how Gemini services are expanding across Android’s peripheral platforms.

Why It Matters

Google I/O comes as investor sentiment is growing cautious. Apple’s Eddy Cue recently confirmed declining Google searches on Safari, and Munster and others have called out the company for falling behind in innovation—even with its unmatched trove of data, compute, and talent. While Morgan Stanley data suggests Gemini is gaining traction, especially among older demographics and e-commerce users, ChatGPT still dominates mindshare among younger consumers and in general-purpose informational search.

The broader concern is whether AI will erode Google’s economic moat. If AI agents bypass Google’s ads altogether—as Perplexity is attempting to do—then today’s announcements must show not just technical competence but a roadmap for monetization in a world beyond “10 blue links.”

Companies to Watch

• Microsoft: Hosting its own Build conference this week, with updates to Copilot AI and deepening integration into Windows. Watch for comparisons to Google’s Gemini-based offerings.
• Nvidia: Just showcased a new AI factory concept with Foxconn, highlighting the hardware foundation behind many of these AI rollouts.
• Meta: Recently hosted LlamaCon, though it’s reportedly facing setbacks. Its AI ambitions still pose a competitive threat to Google's search and social footprints.
• Apple: Set to unveil its own AI upgrades at WWDC in June, including changes to Siri and Spotlight Search.

How to Follow the Event

• Time: Keynote begins at 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT).
• Watch: Stream via the Google I/O website or YouTube live.
• Developer Keynote: Follows at 4:30 p.m. ET for more technical deep dives.
• Live Coverage: Outlets like WIRED, Engadget, and The Verge will run liveblogs and recap sessions throughout the day.

Final Thoughts

Google has much to prove at I/O 2025—not just that it can build great AI tools, but that it can monetize them in a way that preserves its dominance in digital advertising. With competitors encroaching and its stock trading below key technical levels, this year’s conference feels more like an inflection point than a victory lap. Investors will be watching closely not just for flashy demos, but for strategic clarity on how Google plans to remain essential in a world increasingly mediated by AI.