Goodrx Soars 30% on Landmark Novo Nordisk Partnership: A Game-Changer in GLP-1 Access?

Summary
• Goodrx (GDRX) surges 30.83% intraday to $4.88, defying a 52-week low of $3.305
• Partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell Ozempic/Wegovy at $499/month drives demand
• 17M GLP-1 inquiries on Goodrx in past year, up 22% YoY
• Turnover hits 21.7M shares, 26.7% of float, as options frenzy erupts

Goodrx’s 30% intraday rally has ignited a firestorm in the digital health sector, fueled by a strategic alliance with Novo Nordisk to democratize access to GLP-1 drugs. The $499/month cash price for Ozempic and Wegovy marks a seismic shift in prescription affordability, with 17 million inquiries on GLP-1 medications in the past year. As the stock trades near its 52-week high of $8.80, technical indicators and options activity suggest a pivotal inflection point.

Novo Nordisk Partnership Ignites 30% Surge in Goodrx
Goodrx’s partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell Ozempic and Wegovy at a cash price of $499/month has catalyzed a 30.83% intraday surge. This move directly addresses the $19M gap in GLP-1 coverage for weight-loss patients, leveraging Goodrx’s 30M-user platform to bypass insurance barriers. CEO Wendy Barnes emphasized the strategic timing, avoiding compounded alternatives while aligning with Trump-era policies favoring direct-to-consumer sales. The partnership also counters Eli Lilly’s Zepbound dominance, with Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy losing 199% YOY prescription growth to Lilly’s drug. This positioning as a “lawfully approved” access point has redefined Goodrx’s role in the $100B GLP-1 market.

Options Volatility and ETF Strategy for GDRX’s Bullish Breakout
• MACD: -0.3206 (bearish divergence), RSI: 15.96 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $3.06–$5.61 (current price at 4.88 near upper band)
• 200D MA: $4.61 (bullish crossover), Turnover Rate: 26.7% (high liquidity)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $4.73–$4.76, 200D $4.88–$4.94 (current price at 4.88 at key resistance)

Top Options Contracts:
• GDRX20250919C5 (Call, $5 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 82.65% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.5238 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0101 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3269 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $193,492 (liquid)
- Leverage: 10.89% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST=5.12): $0.12/share
- Why: High gamma and IV make this ideal for short-term volatility plays.
• GDRX20251017C5 (Call, $5 strike, 10/17 expiry):
- IV: 66.18% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5352 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0058 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.2997 (solid sensitivity)
- Turnover: $32,287 (liquid)
- Leverage: 9.80% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST=5.12): $0.12/share
- Why: Longer expiry with balanced risk/reward for mid-term bullish bets.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target GDRX20250919C5 for a 5% upside play, while conservative traders may use GDRX20251017C5 to hedge against volatility decay. Monitor the $5.00 level as a critical psychological barrier.

Backtest Goodrx Stock Performance
The backtest of GDRX's performance after a 31% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive surge, it failed to maintain this momentum over the short and medium term. The 3-day win rate was 48.96%, the 10-day win rate was 50.09%, and the 30-day win rate was 46.87%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. However, the returns declined over time, with a maximum return of only -0.09% over 30 days, suggesting that the stock was more volatile than stable following the initial surge.

GDRX’s $5.00 Breakout: A New Era in GLP-1 Accessibility
Goodrx’s 30% surge signals a structural shift in GLP-1 drug distribution, with the $5.00 level acting as a pivotal catalyst. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions (RSI at 15.96), the partnership’s market impact could sustain momentum. Investors should watch the UnitedHealth Group (UNH) sector leader, which rose 2.31% today, for broader health-tech sentiment. A sustained close above $5.00 would validate the breakout, while a retest of the $4.73 support zone could trigger a pullback. Act now: Position in GDRX20250919C5 for a 5% upside or monitor UNH’s performance as a sector bellwether.