Goldman strategists warn that US stocks are currently priced at a "perfect level," making a pullback highly likely.
AInvestThursday, Jan 9, 2025 7:10 pm ET
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Goldman's chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer warns that the current "perfect" market environment for making money may be hard to sustain as investors digest the rise in bond yields, overvaluation, and uncertainty over further rate cuts.Peter Oppenheimer says, "The recent strong rebound in US equities has made the current equity market's valuation seem perfect. While we expect equities to continue to rise overall for the year - driven by corporate earnings - the market is increasingly vulnerable to a pullback, especially if bond yields rise further or economic data and earnings disappoint."Peter Oppenheimer notes that three factors are complicating the US equity market in 2025, including: the rapid rise in equities may have already priced in an optimistic view of economic growth in 2025; high valuations limit the potential for future returns; and an extraordinary level of market concentration increases portfolio risk.Peter Oppenheimer says, "The simple comparison of cyclical versus defensive sectors shows that the recent strength in equities has been largely driven by higher growth expectations, especially in the US, and the optimism around Trump's deregulation and tax cuts. This makes the market vulnerable to any disappointment in growth, especially if the specifics of Trump's tax and tariff policies become clear."

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